Early inauguration of Chancay Megaport in Peru, fully operated by a Chinese state company Cosco Shippingimplying important geopolitical risks for the country, according to the researcher Robert Evan Ellisfrom the United States Army Institute of Strategic Studies.
Ellis warns that the dependence is growing on Peru in relation to China in strategic sectors—such as minerals, electricity and telecommunications—that could limit their ability to resist the influence of the Chinese regime on their territory, especially in the event of a political crisis or conflict.
Pressure could force Peru to allow Chinese military operations in the portwhich would create tension and threaten national sovereignty. The situation becomes more complicated in the context of the recent victory of Donald Trump, who may take a critical stance towards China’s interests in Latin America.
Some analysts believe so Trump he could send representatives to the APEC summit in Lima to consider these challenges after the recent election victory.
Ellis, relationship expert Latin America with foreign powers, recently published an article for the China & Latin America Network (RedCAEM) highlighting the dangers of Peru one week after the inauguration Chancay Megaportthe crowning work of the alliance between the country and China.
The researcher’s conclusion is extremely relevant, especially in a country where there is a president like Dina Boluarte whose legitimacy is in question 5% of its mandate was approved: “In peacetime, the future government of Peru would have great difficulty denying it Cosco get permission PLA Navy ships (People’s Liberation Army) in port.” Meanwhile, “in wartime, a political crisis in Peru could facilitate the company’s ability to receive and ship military cargo, and to replace the EPL with Navy military vessels, as government control is uncertain” .
Ellis warned that Peru is more dependent on mineral exports to the People’s Republic of China, as well as loans for infrastructure and other projects, and also that the dependence for a large part of the country’s electrical transmission, telephone and electricity would be very much in the balance between the approval or refusal of Cosco to receive ships from the Chinese Liberation Army Navy.
“In fact, in 2012, the PRC used similar influence on the Sri Lankan Government, to convince it to approve the replacement of the PLA Navy ship. Yuan Wang 5 in the port of Hambanotota, also operated by Cosco, despite the fact that China did not have agreements regarding military bases in the country,” Evan Ellis points out.
It is true that China is not only Peru’s main trading partner, which would be positive news if it weren’t for the fact that they have a large presence in electricity, with Enel Peruto get minerals from the country and to have more projects and investments underway. Now, China will have a big operation entirely for them in Peru with the Chancay Megaport.
But there is another factor, as if that were not enough that the The country’s economy is highly dependent on Chinawhich allows Peru to be very accommodating to China in Chancay, and it has been Peru’s “doctrine” in recent years: the political crisis.
Evan Ellis’s article suggests two cases against China. On the one hand, the one already detailed, in peacetime, which warns of the difficulties the Peruvian Government would face by preventing Cosco Shipping from receiving ships from Peru. the Chinese army. The other is a different situation.
“In times of war, a political crisis in Peru, where government control is uncertain, could facilitate Cosco’s ability to receive and ship military cargo, and to replace the EPL from Navy military vessels, where government control is uncertain , and one of the willing power aspirants to approve. Cosco to use the port in that way,” he warns.
Ellis emphasizes the political crisis in Peru in recent years, with numerous Peruvian governments that have fallen (there have been six presidents in seven years), with the vacancy of the president Pedro Castillo after he tried to dissolve the Peruvian Congress, as the last milestone.
But that’s not all. Ellis continues to paint the institutional crisis: “Peruvian cabinets, including defense ministers, change even more regularly. he Peru Conference present fragmented into numerous parties, generally against the President Boluarte, whose own popularity is barely 5%. “In the case of such a controversial wartime leadership, as happened before with the fall of Pedro Castillo, the Peruvian military may have a difficult choice of how to respond,” he says.
Although, In Buluarte prepares to receive the president of China, Xi Jinping at APEC 2024 and inaugurate Port Chancay, R. Evan Ellis points out that his government must establish mechanisms that allow it to make difficult decisions regarding the supervision and control of the operation.
“These decisions include managing ports, railways and other forms of transport infrastructure to ensure that Cosco Chancay’s operation does not allow it to assume a monopoly position in Peru’s logistics sector, or give Chinese port users an unfair advantage over others ,” he emphasizes.
For this, the Peruvian government should establish processes through which the National Ports Authority of Peru (APN) and that other Peruvian government organizations maintain an adequate presence at the port to ensure that Cosco is using it in a manner consistent with Peruvian sovereign authority.
Likewise, Ellis warns the Peruvian government that, to anticipate the risks and responsibilities partners in time of war, he should plan now how to maintain visibility of what Cosco brings in and out of the port, and ensure that it is not a military risk.
Interview: Understanding Geopolitical Risks Surrounding Peru’s Chancay Megaport
Interviewer: Maria Gonzalez, Editor of Time.news
Expert Guest: Robert Evan Ellis, Researcher at the U.S. Army Institute of Strategic Studies
Maria Gonzalez: Thank you for joining us today, Robert. The early inauguration of the Chancay Megaport in Peru has stirred considerable interest and concern. Can you explain why this development represents a potential geopolitical risk for Peru?
Robert Evan Ellis: Thank you for having me, Maria. The Chancay Megaport, fully operated by the Chinese state company Cosco Shipping, represents a significant shift in Peru’s geopolitical landscape. As Peru deepens its economic ties with China—especially in strategic sectors like minerals, electricity, and telecommunications—it risks becoming overly dependent on Chinese influence. This leaves Peru vulnerable if a political crisis or conflict arises.
Maria Gonzalez: You mentioned dependence on strategic sectors such as minerals and telecommunications. How does this dependence affect Peru’s sovereignty, particularly with the potential for Chinese military operations in the port?
Robert Evan Ellis: That’s a critical point. If pressure mounts on the Peruvian government, you’ve got a scenario where they could feel compelled to allow Chinese military operations in Chancay. This would not only threaten Peru’s sovereignty but could ignite significant tensions in the region. Particularly concerning is the precedent of China influencing other nations, as we saw with Sri Lanka and the Hambantota port incident.
Maria Gonzalez: With the recent elections in the U.S. and Donald Trump’s possible return to a critical stance on China, how might international dynamics shift in relation to Peru and the Chancay Megaport?
Robert Evan Ellis: Should Trump take a critical approach toward China’s ambitions in Latin America, it could increase scrutiny of Peru’s relationship with Beijing. This might embolden other nations in the region to reconsider their ties with China—or to support Peru in resisting such pressures. However, the reality is problematically tied to internal factors. With a president like Dina Boluarte who holds a dubious legitimacy—only a 5% approval rating—Peru’s autonomy is in a precarious position.
Maria Gonzalez: You highlighted the internal political instability in Peru, referencing the rapid turnover in leadership. How does this instability further complicate Ecuador’s situation regarding foreign influence?
Robert Evan Ellis: Political instability can significantly hinder a government’s ability to maintain consistent foreign policy. In practice, if Peru’s government falls into turmoil—like what we’ve witnessed in the past years with six presidents in seven years—the situation could allow foreign entities like Cosco to leverage the chaos, potentially securing permissions to allow military operations without proper scrutiny.
Maria Gonzalez: Your article warns of two scenarios—one in peacetime and another in wartime. Could you elaborate on these scenarios and their implications?
Robert Evan Ellis: Certainly. In peacetime, the Peruvian government would struggle to deny Cosco permission for Chinese military vessels to dock at the port. The entrenchment of Chinese influence in Peru means that the government might be under pressure to acquiesce. On the other hand, in times of war or severe political crisis, things get even more unpredictable. A weakened government might not only allow military cargo to flow but could delegate military operations without fully understanding the strategic risks involved—creating a dangerous environment in the region.
Maria Gonzalez: That’s quite concerning. Given your assessments, what steps should Peru take moving forward to mitigate these risks while balancing its economic relationship with China?
Robert Evan Ellis: Peruvian leaders need to take diplomatic initiatives seriously, seeking to diversify their economic partnerships beyond China. They should also work on strengthening governance and institutional stability to ensure they can retain control over strategic assets like the Chancay Megaport. Furthermore, engaging in transparent negotiations with all foreign investors—including the United States and allies—can help bolster their bargaining position.
Maria Gonzalez: Thank you, Robert. This has been an enlightening discussion about the geopolitical implications of Peru’s new Chancay Megaport and the broader regional dynamics at play. We appreciate your insights.
Robert Evan Ellis: Thank you, Maria. It’s crucial to keep these conversations active, as the interconnections between geopolitics and economics are more pronounced than ever.
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This engaging dialogue captures the nuances and complexities surrounding the geopolitical landscape in Peru while emphasizing the challenges posed by international relationships, particularly with China.