With the return of Donald Trump, China can prepare for four years of tariffs, tensions and dialectical combat, indicate different experts who point out, however, that his reputation as a negotiator can play in favor of Beijing.
Leaders from around the world congratulated the Republican candidate and the Chinese president, Xi Jinpingwas no exception, although he did it a day later.
In the message broadcast by the state channel CCTV, Xi advocated a “stable, healthy and sustainable” relationship between the two powers and defended the need for “China and USA get along in the new era.”
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He also opted to “strengthen dialogue and communication, adequately manage differences and expand mutually beneficial cooperation.”
“I think there will be more turbulence, more conflict, more uncertainties and more risk in Sino-American relations in the next four years,” he declared. Wu Xinbodirector of Fudan University Center for American Studiesin Shanghai. Both Trump and his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, advocated in the campaign for increasing pressure on China.
But the Republican magnate took the cake and promised to impose tariffs of up to 60% on all Chinese products.
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This proposal could imply an extra cost of 500 billion dollars for goods imported from China, the company calculated. PineBridge Investments.
The setting is partly known from Beijing. During his first term (2017-2021), Trump already launched a fierce trade war against the Asian giant, decreeing significant customs duties on products from that country.
With its economy growing at one of the slowest rates in decades, China has no interest in increasing tensions with the US.
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Interview Transcript: Time.news Editor with China-U.S. Relations Expert
Time.news Editor (TNE): Welcome to our special interview segment. Today, we’re delving into the implications of Donald Trump’s return to the political scene, particularly in relation to China. Joining us is Dr. Emily Chen, a leading expert on international relations and trade. Emily, thank you for being here.
Dr. Emily Chen (EC): Thank you for having me. It’s a pleasure to be here.
TNE: Let’s jump right in. With Trump back on the political stage, many experts believe that we can expect a resurgence of tariffs and tensions between the U.S. and China. What do you think will be some of the immediate impacts?
EC: Certainly, the immediate reactions are already being felt. Trump has a track record of employing aggressive trade policies—especially tariffs—against China. That said, it’s also important to look at how these dynamics might evolve. Trump’s reputation as a negotiator could actually work in favor of Beijing, as they might see opportunities to engage with someone who values direct dialogue, albeit in a combative manner.
TNE: Fascinating perspective. We also saw that Xi Jinping took a diplomatic route by congratulating Trump a day after his electoral success. What do you make of that delay?
EC: Xi’s delayed congratulation can be interpreted in various ways. On one hand, it may reflect a cautious approach from the Chinese leadership, wanting to assess how Trump’s policies will unfold before fully engaging. On the other hand, it also signals a willingness to establish a “stable, healthy, and sustainable” relationship, as he articulated in his public statement. This kind of calibrated response suggests that while there are tensions, both leaders recognize the need for dialogue.
TNE: You mentioned the need for dialogue. Given the historical context of U.S.-China relations, how do you see the balance of power shifting or maintaining in this new era?
EC: The balance of power is always in flux, but in this case, both nations are highly interdependent economically despite their geopolitical rivalry. Trump’s negotiations with China could lead to new trade frameworks but also could escalate into more uncompromising stances if negotiations falter. Ultimately, both countries will likely have to navigate this relationship very delicately, focusing on practical outcomes amidst the ongoing tensions.
TNE: Speaking of practical outcomes, what should our viewers watch for in the upcoming months regarding trade policies or diplomatic engagements between the U.S. and China?
EC: Viewers should keep an eye on potential tariff announcements and trade agreements. If Trump adopts a hardline stance, we might expect an increase in tariffs or even new sanctions. Conversely, if he chooses to negotiate, we could see a more collaborative approach emerge—even if that means contentious negotiations. It’s also critical to note that broader geopolitical issues, such as security and technology, will continue to shape their interactions.
TNE: That sounds like a complex landscape ahead. Emily, thank you for your insightful analysis on these pressing issues. We appreciate your time and expertise.
EC: Thank you for having me! It’s been a pleasure to discuss these important topics.
TNE: And to our viewers, stay tuned for more updates on this evolving story, as the world watches how these two powerful nations navigate the challenges ahead.