China, Russia, the United States: in space, the great return of the Cold War

Certainly, Chang’e-5 has neither the charisma nor the sense of Neil Armstrong’s formula. However, this little robot entered the history of China in the same way as the American astronaut on the other side of the Atlantic: it was he who planted the first flag of his country on the Moon, in December 2020. “Like Apollo 11 in the past, the Chinese flag inspires humanity today”, commented then, all in modesty, the Global Times, official gazette of the Chinese government. “Space is always approached as a project for humanity, but it is never the UN flag that is planted on the Moon, raises Marc Julienne, head of China activities at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). For China, as for the United States, the flag symbolizes this struggle to control the narrative, to win the story of the space conquest.”

China’s endless ambitions in space

Sixty years after the Cold War star race between the USSR and the United States, geopolitics is making a comeback in space. Since the early 2000s, China has been gaining momentum, with an extremely ambitious program aimed at competing with the American superpower. In 2003, Beijing placed its first taikonaut in orbit, before launching the first version of its own space station in 2011, then a second in 2016. An unprecedented feat, the Chinese landed on the dark side of the Moon in 2018, and sent their rover on Mars in 2021.

“For Beijing, space is above all a vector of prestige, underlines Marc Julienne. China aspires to become the first world power in all areas by 2049, in order to celebrate the century of the founding of the People’s Republic China, and space is explicitly one of the sectors in which it must be ahead of other powers, including the United States.” This spatial development also guarantees Beijing its economic and technological independence, embodied by the launch of its own satellite navigation system in 2020, Beidou.

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Opposite, Washington does not intend to be eclipsed so easily. By far the leading space power, the United States continues to invest 50 billion dollars each year in this sector, without counting the development of its private players. In comparison, the annual budget of Chinese space, kept secret, is estimated between 10 and 15 billion dollars by specialists. “The Americans invest so much money in space in order to preserve their lead over all the other space powers, indicates Isabelle Sourbès-Verger, research director at the CNRS and specialist in the geopolitics of space. costs 10 billion dollars per year, which is equivalent to the entire European space budget, States and the European Union included.

In a strange return to the Cold War, the two current superpowers are fighting over the same objective: to colonize the Moon. Beijing and Washington want to make a man or a woman walk again on our satellite before 2030, but also to exploit the resources there and establish a lunar base, a kind of launching pad for the exploration of the Universe. “On the Moon, the challenge for the Americans would be to move on to a new phase of space activity by developing human, industrial and economic activity directly in space, explains Isabelle Sourbès-Verger. Their projects are very concrete, with mining, 3D printers or space tugs. For now, the Chinese are only looking to do what they have never done before, which is to set foot on the Moon.”

The inexorable decline of Russian space, a boon for Beijing

In this race for modern space, China can rely on a historical player in the sector in full escheat. Russia, which sent the first man into space in 1961, has lacked engineers, new technologies and above all a space policy since the fall of the Soviet Union. “With nuclear, space remained the last sector in which Moscow could benefit from international stature, points out Isabelle Sourbès-Verger. But the war in Ukraine ends up burying the means that Moscow could devote to this effort. Conversely to China, which has always been excluded from international technological cooperation, Russia has been cooperating with the West since the end of the Soviet Union and finds itself very dependent on Western products in certain fields, in particular electronics.

Western sanctions force Moscow to get closer to the Chinese giant to continue to exist in space. Since 2014 and the invasion of Crimea, the two countries have become space partners, Beijing taking advantage of the long Soviet experience in the field. For example, taikonaut suits use Russian technologies, as do Chinese space capsules.

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In the spring of 2021, China and Russia announced that they were working together on a lunar scientific station, on the surface or in orbit, to compete with the American-led Artemis program. “Russia’s aspirations as an autonomous power in space are dwindling, notes Marc Julienne. The partnership with China is becoming vital for Russian space, which will soon no longer be able to go into orbit alone. D on the other hand, China has less and less need of Russia and its experience, except from a political point of view, since cooperating in space programs, which are at the same time strategic, scientific and ambitious, sends a very strong message to the western world.” As on earth, the cold war is making a comeback in space.