China‘s economic growth rate in the third quarter only recorded 4.6%. With the growth rate falling below 5% for two consecutive quarters, the outlook for 5% growth this year is bleak.
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics on the 18th, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of this year (July to September) recorded 33.291 trillion yuan (about 6,403 trillion won), an increase of 4.6% compared to the same period last year. This is the lowest growth rate since the 4.5% recorded in the first quarter of last year.
This year, China’s GDP growth rate recorded 5.3% in the first quarter, showing growth exceeding 5%, but fell to 4.7% in the second quarter and fell below 5% again.
Accordingly, the cumulative GDP in the first to third quarters of this year was 94.9746 trillion yuan (approximately 182.66 trillion won), recording a growth rate of 4.8% compared to the same period last year. As a result, it is somewhat unlikely that China will achieve the ‘around 5%’ growth rate goal set by China this year. It got dark.
However, this result is slightly higher than the average of 4.4% calculated by Chinese economic media outlet Caixin in the third quarter growth forecasts of domestic and foreign economic organizations. A preliminary survey of Chinese economists conducted by the Nikkei Shimbun and QUICK News predicted that the growth rate in the third quarter would be 4.6%.
Industrial production last month increased by 5.4% compared to the same month last year, and on a cumulative basis from January to September, it increased by 5.8% compared to the same period last year. In the same month, retail sales increased by 3.2%, increasing by 3.3% on a cumulative basis from January to September.
Fixed asset investment from January to September increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last year. However, during the same period, nationwide real estate development investment decreased by 10.1%. The unemployment rate from January to September averaged 5.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year.
The National Bureau of Statistics said, “In the first to third quarters of the past year, we faced a complex and severe external environment, a new situation in domestic economic operation, and new problems,” and added, “We maintained the principle of promoting business in stability, increased macrocontrol, and deepened reform and opening up.” “We worked hard to expand domestic demand, optimize the economic structure, efficiently implement inventory policies, and introduce volume increase policies,” he said.
He explained, “In September, a number of production and demand indicators improved and the market outlook improved, increasing the number of positive factors promoting economic recovery.”
In addition, he added, “Overall, economic operations in the first to third quarters were generally stable, progress was made, and policy effects continued to appear,” adding, “Recently, major economic indicators showed positive changes.”
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