Citibanamex consulted economic analysts to project the approximate date in which the Bank of Mexico (BdeM) will make a cut to the interest rate.
According to the survey carried out, we would be less than two weeks away from the Bank of Mexico making the cut of a quarter of a percentage point to the reference rate at its next monetary policy meeting.
According to data from the latest Citibanamex Expectations Survey, the 37 participating financial entities They anticipate that the central bank’s governing board will reduce the reference rate by 25 basis points for the month of November.
Bank of Mexico will cut interest rates in November, according to the Citibanamex Survey
In the event that the 25 basis points for Novemberthe reference rate, which is currently at a level of 10.50 percent, would remain at 10.25 percent.
With these data, the specialists consulted by Citibanamex predict that at the end of 2024, the interest rate is at a level of 10 percent, That is, a cut of more than a quarter point to the objective that would be announced in December, during the last monetary policy meeting.
Specialists also project that the trend will continue by the end of 2025, since the rate is expected to be at a level of 8 percent interest rate.
Mexican peso against dollar; the exchange rate today September 6 (Chrysanthemum Espinosa Aguilar/Quartoscuro)
Citibanamex’s projections regarding exchange rate and inflation
Other data from the Citibanamex survey anticipate that at the end of the year there will be a GDP growth of 1.5 percent. While by 2025, activity is projected to have an advance of 1 percent.
Regarding inflation, the economists consulted by the bank anticipated that the year will end at a level of 4.40 percent, forecast below the 4.44 percent presented fifteen days ago.
Regarding the exchange rate, Citibanamex indicated at the end of this year it was revised to 19.80 pesos per dollar from a level of 19.67 units per greenback in the previous survey, and for the end of 2025 the estimate also increased from 19.95 a 20.10.
Inflation in Mexico (SDPnoticias.com / Eduardo Díaz)