At the last minute, a tribunal of the United States made the decision to allow millions of dollars to be allocated to bets on who will win the victory of the White Housea dispute debated between Kamala Harris y Donald Trump.
It should be noted that the “contracts” or positions that are in favor of Kamala ranged from 48% to 50% last Friday at the signing. Interactive Brokerswhich took advantage in this sector shortly after legal authorization on October 2 in a country with a long battle of regulators against electoral markets.
Barely a month before the elections on November 5, the betting market was enabled after a Washington court determined that Kalshi, a startup that for several years has tried to introduce political betting USAmay attract bets while regulatory appeals against the company are resolved.
In just a couple of days, more than $6.3 million came into play just for the dispute between Harris and Trump, and users are also betting on which party will take control of the House of Representatives and of Senate.
This is the most recent chapter in the dispute between the regulatory commission for this type of markets CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), and firms that wish to offer electoral bets that are authorized in certain countries and in which some United States citizens participate outside the supervision of offshore markets.
One of these is Polymarket, where there is more than $1.7 billion at stake in the definition of the presidential election, with Trump leading 54 to 45 over Harris on Friday night.
Those in favor of betting, or “event contracts,” in financial terms, argue that it is an illegitimate way of backing bets against adverse outcomes, comparing them to “future contracts.”
It is worth noting that, before the October 2 ruling, there were only two legal betting markets in the United States, which had been granted exemptions due to their connection to research projects and strict limits on the number of people participating. They can bet.
However, critics have warned about the expansion of electoral bets in a polarized context, when basic facts are in dispute and misinformation abounds on which people can base their bets.
“I don’t want to sound too dramatic, but we live in a country where tens of millions of Americans believe the last presidential election was fraudulent,” CFTC general counsel Rob Schwartz explained in arguing against the Kalshi firm.
Although the door to these political bets can be closed with other appeals, any decision will be made after November 5, so the markets will continue to operate throughout the election.
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