There will be a lot of talk about the fact that China’s leader Xi Jinping, who is about to be appointed this week for another term, is a kind of new Mao Zedong. There is something to that, but the real question is whether he will become an even worse version of Vladimir Putin.
At its conference, the Chinese Communist Party is expected to nominate Xi for a third five-year term, after arranging for themselves, Putin-style, the removal of the two-term limit. It will be the result of secret discussions this summer in the 25-member Politburo, because that’s how it works in China. Xi is not exactly a dictator – this is simply what the dictatorial party wants.
If he is indeed appointed, in three years Xi will pass Ziang Zemin and become the longest-serving head of the party (and state) in the post-Mao era; the 69-year-old leader also arranged for himself an exception to the limit that disqualifies those over 68 from being appointed to a new position; he also mentions By occasionally wearing Mao, he promotes a cult of personality unlike his predecessors (since Mao); and it seems that the media is one step away from starting to call him “The Great Leader” – as Mao was called.
Under Xi, China has been more repressive than in recent decades: it is trying to force the assimilation of the Uyghurs and other minorities, and the country is less capitalist and less tolerant of criticism even within the party. Under the guise of an anti-corruption operation, Xi also purged some of his internal opponents.
Under Xi, China has been more repressive than in recent decades: it is trying to force the assimilation of the Uyghurs and other minorities, and the country is less capitalist and less tolerant of criticism even within the party
It is unlikely that Xi will get involved in acts of madness and unnecessary cruelty like Mao’s “Cultural Revolution” and “Great Leap Forward”. China is a much more industrialized country than it was then, and its citizens – despite the censorship – are more sophisticated, aware and educated than their predecessors. Xi seems rational enough to understand that repression on the level of Mao could ignite unnecessary unrest.
Indeed, he uses nationalism to woo public opinion. Apparently it’s good that he cares – but it’s also dangerous. If Xi starts to take seriously his talk of “reunification” with Taiwan, the result could be a global conflict that would make the Ukraine war look like a polite disagreement.
The reasons for this may be related to the truth about China’s economy, which some expect to replace that of the United States as having the greatest influence in the world. It is interesting to examine the real picture.
The world economy is estimated at 85 trillion dollars. China, with $14.7 trillion, accounts for 17% of that. Its population of almost 1.5 billion constitutes a slightly larger part of the world’s population – 18%. Not exactly a disproportion. This, after three decades of rapid growth, which has recently slowed down.
By comparison, the US has just over 4% of the world’s population and creates about a quarter of the world’s economy (with an even bigger impact, probably, on entrepreneurship and innovation). This is what true dominance looks like.
Moreover, no one knows whether to believe China’s official numbers. What is known is that much of the growth of recent years has been fueled by a huge construction boom fueled by a credit bubble that is now collapsing.
It is clear that the global economy depends on China for cheap produce and demand for raw materials. But as China becomes less poor, the more expensive the labor force becomes and thus becomes less attractive. Also, the disaster in Ukraine gives globalization and the interdependence it creates a bad name, with the West limited in its ability to punish Russia while it commits horrific war crimes. It seems that instead of creating a deterrent, the business may be rewarding bad behavior.
Oddly enough, if China really wants the world to depend on it, it will have to actually control Taiwan, which produces 65 percent of semiconductors and nearly 90 percent of advanced chips. Pretty amazing, with a population only about twice that of Israel. This is not the only reason why China covets the island – but it is certainly a major reason why the West is not ready to think about “reunification”.
For the Chinese, an invasion of Taiwan could prove to be complicated and expensive, since it would require crossing the Taiwan Strait (which is about 150 km wide) and then overcoming a determined opponent armed with the best Western weapons – as in Ukraine. Again as in Ukraine, it would put the aggressor in the ridiculous position of a country As a capital of dimensions that risks everything and annoys everyone in order to add a few more dunams to itself.
For the Chinese, an invasion of Taiwan could prove to be complicated and expensive, since it would require crossing the Taiwan Strait (which is about 150 km wide) and then overcoming a determined opponent armed with the best Western weapons – as in Ukraine
The US, meanwhile, presents an unclear position on Taiwan. It hesitates to declare that it will defend the island, but sometimes hints that it will. Despite this, it is Taiwan’s largest arms supplier. This “strategic ambiguity”, like the lack of diplomatic relations between Washington and Taipei, Driven by the desire to appease China. A little shameful, and a lot confusing. Let’s hope Xi isn’t tempted.
For the West, China’s appalling human rights situation presents a Good Samaritan dilemma. Do you allow your neighbor to hit his children because it is none of your business? In international relations, the default answer is yes – until some tyrant, particularly stupid, goes too far and perhaps harms wider interests. So did Saddam Hussein. Putin is on his way there. It is not clear if Shay has an interest in joining the club.
If Xi really does invade, there will be considerable willingness to make China pay for the move, certainly financially. Without international trade there will be no growth – and this will destroy the communists’ unwritten agreement with the people: prosperity in exchange for their freedom.
The people of Taiwan are not tortured by any such deal (and they also see how China violated an agreement to respect democracy in Hong Kong). They really don’t want to be ruled by the Chinese Communist Party. And that’s not a big surprise, because we’d probably be very hard pressed to find a single group of people on the planet who would want to be ruled by the Chinese Communist Party.
I would not be surprised if the people of China themselves are not exceptional. Today, they cannot speak their mind freely, and they do not have a free flow of information, with the Internet heavily censored and the news controlled by the Xinhua agency, which is actually an affiliate of the party.
There are those who are ready to accept debunked narratives – such as the story that the Chinese are generally satisfied. But between us, if we think about it for a second, does anyone really believe that if the Chinese were offered the opportunity to abolish a system where a handful of old men decide everything for them in the dark, they would be reluctant to do so? A thought exercise for all Israelis – complacent, evil or irresponsible – who intend to vote for parties that will work to weaken democracy here as well.