The third year in the NBA is your last probationary year as a player in the league. After surviving the rookie season and the sophomore season (the second year), comes the part where you stop accepting such and such discounts for trying to realize your potential, and you have to start showing improvement to establish your status or the way you are viewed in the league.
As far as Danny Avdia is concerned, the third year is the last in which he can develop without thinking about his future, because it is already guaranteed, at least financially. Washington exercised the option on him and kept him in the team for the next season as well. This year he will have to show that the potential inherent in him, to be a point forward who can run attacks on one side and guard the opponent’s best player on the other side, is getting closer to being realized.
Right now, Avdia has established himself as a very good defender with flashes of outside shooting (one of the most efficient three-point shooters in the first half of his rookie season) and ball-carrying and offense management, as he did in the latter part of last season and sometimes in garbage time of the rest of the games.
From the moment he finishes the 2022/23 season, general managers around the league will start looking at him and try to think about what he has that could fit their team and how much he is worth bidding on. The considerations of the decision makers in the different teams in the NBA are very diverse, but sometimes also very fixed. Once a player is stigmatized, it will remain until he shows that he is not one-dimensional.
The talk around Avdia last season was about his defense. The performances against Jayson Tatum and Giannis Antetokounmpo at the beginning of the season ignited the imagination of all NBA people about what he can do and where he can develop on the defensive side, when they almost completely neglected the offensive part, which was talked about endlessly when he entered the league. The same speech, in contract years, which the Israeli will begin to enter from the 2023/24 season, can be the difference between receiving a long-term contract and millions of dollars and receiving a short minimum contract or being cut from the league.
The road to get there starts this season, where Avdia has to figure out what kind of player he wants to be in the league. Omri Caspi, who showed great ability in Sacramento in his first two seasons and saw him slowly lose his place in the league as an average to above all-around player, has been transformed in his second term with the Kings into a three-point shooter and someone who has a great sense of position on offense. Those abilities kept him as a legitimate rotation player in the league for another five years, during which he bought himself a place on one of the best teams in history (Golden State Warriors).
It will be difficult for Avdia to be something he is not and you saw it when he spent on the field the last two seasons. The place where he really managed to flourish was in the Israeli national team, where despite the groin injury he was carrying, he led Guy Goodes’ players with tremendous displays, including an unforgettable one against Finland in the opening game of the Eurobasket in front of Tommy Shepherd (the general manager of the Wizards ) in what showed his true abilities.
Avdia can do in Washington what he did in the national team and even more, but there are several problems that prevent him from doing that. The first is the insecurity, as the forward admitted. Not in driving the ball, not in passes and especially not in shots. It could be the method of his past and present coaches in the team, Scott Brooks and Wes Anseld Jr., and it could be simply the player himself who is afraid to make a mistake because he could be sent to the bench. In any case, coaches want players who are confident on both sides of the court in the crucial minutes on the floor. When he was confident, he got the chance, now Avdia needs to show it consistently.
Another thing he needs to be consistent about is the three-pointer. When you play alongside players who attract a lot of attention like Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis, you will probably find yourself free outside the arc at one point or another. Beyond that good half-season, in which he scored 21 three-pointers from 46 attempts, Avdia failed to position himself as a player who can be trusted outside the arc. Last season he shot only 31.7% on threes, with Josh Robbins of The Athletic pointing out that this is one of the reasons Avdia probably won’t get a spot in Washington’s starting five this coming season, despite the absence of the man who filled the position for most of 2021/22, Corey Kispert, who is sidelined due to injury.
The players who participate in Anseld Jr.’s system of play are the guards, the center and the player who plays the number 4 position. Since the return of Roy Hachimura, Avdia has played the number 3 position and most of his role there is to stand outside the arc and wait for his opportunity. In a significant part of his first two seasons in the NBA he did not block, initiate or ask for the ball, but concentrated on the defensive side (at least in the last season) and used his good cuts to the basket to get easy points. The moments when there was enthusiasm for him were when he tried to penetrate the basket on his own initiative or led a ball in a burst on the way to a good assist.
In recent seasons, Washington starts the season with expectations for a certain place and then deteriorates. Two years ago, the Wizards set themselves a place in the top six as a goal, but finished in eighth place and entered the playoffs through the playoffs. Last season, there was again an expectation to finish in the middle of the eastern part and try to reach the playoffs, but the 12th place was more realistic. This season, the expectation for them is to finish in the tenth place area, but there is a very high-quality draft coming soon and maybe they will decide to give up the race this year in order to really develop the young core that exists there, and this is where Avdia’s opportunity should come.
Last season he was one of only five to play in 82 games. He admitted that it was exhausting and that the effort in the defensive part took a lot out of him. This season he is already experienced. He had a good summer (although also injured) and it’s time for Washington to give him the reins a little more and see if the potential they talked about while he was in Maccabi Tel Aviv can be realized. The time has come to see the losses of the Israeli national team.
During the summer months Avdia worked with Drew Hanlan, one of the best shooting coaches in the world. Both said that he still has a lot to improve in terms of his shooting, but the Israeli said in recent interviews with the media that there is going to be a significant improvement from last year. At the same time, there were repeated talks about wanting to give him more opportunities in creating moves and carrying the ball, so if he manages to take advantage of those opportunities, in the optimistic scenario we can put him in the discussion of the league’s improving player.
Avdia’s first two seasons may be considered a bit of a disappointment in relation to expectations, but you have to remember that some of the league’s biggest stars started writing their names in the pages of history only starting in their third year – Giannis Antetokounmpo became Milwaukee’s main ball carrier and increased his averages on the way to becoming the Greek Freak we all know , Jimmy Butler jumped to the top five, improved his averages despite low shooting percentages and was named to the second defensive top five in the league, James Harden became the sixth player of the season and Kawhi Leonard was named MVP of the NBA Finals and put him in the spotlight.
It is true that these are different players and in different situations, but like them, the riddle of their future in the league was not solved until the third season, where they put a huge stamp that they are here to stay and dominate. Maybe Avdia’s stamp will be smaller, and maybe a little faded, but this is his time to make his mark in the league as a player who can develop into something much bigger than what he has shown so far. The second option is to stamp a player who can do exactly certain things. If his stamp is that of a player who can only do one thing, such as defense or three-pointers, his place in the rotation can disappear if something unexpected happens (thanks to Andre Roberson and Dries Bertans).
Although Avdia rested throughout the preparation games because he was not 100% fit, he remembered the same injury from the Eurobasket, but he had enough support to make him ready for the season – he moved to a new apartment instead, his apartment was broken into and caused him to be in a less good mental state, his parents came to To arrange for him a soft landing and a calm head, the professional team is working with him on a quick but controlled return to the courts and there is no doubt that his security, at least in terms of the things he says, has also improved significantly. Now all that’s left is to show it on the field, and that’s what he’ll try to do from now on and at least until April.
