The market for new electric vehicles in Germany is weakening, and representatives of the German car industry are increasingly pessimistic about its future. And the statistics support them.
Weaker sales, pessimistic forecasts
New electric car registrations in Germany are down about 20 percent since the start of the year. Their sales in 2024 are significantly lower than predicted.
In the January-September period, 409,000 new electric vehicles were registered in the country. This is about a quarter less than the same period last year, Germany’s Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) announced earlier this month.
The share of registered new fully battery-powered electric cars (BEVs) is falling in August 2024, not only in Germany but also in the European Union as a whole. This is indicated by the data of the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA).
The share of new electric cars bought in the EU in August was 14.4 percent of all new cars in the EU, up from 21 percent in the same month in 2023.
In the European Union, 92,627 new fully electric cars were registered in August 2024, compared to 165,204 in the same month last year.
A serious collapse in sales of new fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) was reported in Germany (-68.8 percent) and in France (-33.1 percent). These are the largest markets for this type of car in the European Union, ACEA points out.
“Demand for electric cars remains weak. This is so despite massive reductions in their prices and the introduction of new models,” says consulting company Yi Wye (EY, formerly Ernst & Young).
Against this backdrop, the German Automobile Association (VDA) lowered its forecast for domestic sales of fully electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). It predicts that their total number will amount to 551,000 vehicles, which is 21 percent less than in 2023. The influential industry organization previously predicted that sales would fall by 17 percent. It expects the battery-powered car market (all-electric cars) to suffer the most. The German Automobile Association predicts that in 2024 their sales will collapse by as much as 29 percent compared to last year.
An even bleaker picture of the electric car market in Germany is outlined by Konstantin Gall, an expert in the automotive industry sector at the consulting company YW. He expects electric vehicle sales to drop 30 percent this year. This means that 150,000 fewer electric vehicles will be bought in Germany than in 2023, according to the influential German economic daily Handelsblatt.
The automotive business is asking for support
Against this background, European car companies, represented by their association, made a call for support from the EU institutions at the end of September, reported France Press.
“The continuing trend towards a decline in the market share of all-battery electric cars is an extremely worrying signal for the (representatives of the car industry – note ed.) and for politicians,” the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers states on its website. She calls on the European institutions to propose urgent aid measures. This must be done before 2025, when new requirements come into force to limit harmful carbon dioxide emissions from cars and vans.
In addition, carmakers are calling on the European Commission to “accelerate the review” of the environmental requirements that new cars and vans must meet. The planned assessment of the impact of the environmental requirements should be carried out in 2025, and not in 2026 and 2027, as planned, the industry association said.
A number of European car companies say their business is being hit by strict EU environmental requirements as well as imports of cheap Chinese electric cars.
The European Union this month backed the European Commission’s proposal to impose additional tariffs on imports of electric vehicles made in China. This comes amid an investigation the EC launched last September. It is related to the huge subsidies that the government in Beijing gives to Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers.
The trade defense measures are being imposed because Chinese companies are in a more privileged position than their competitors, benefiting from illegal state subsidies, the European Commission said in June.
The new duties are set to be imposed on top of standard tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, which are 10 percent, according to Reuters.
Overall decline in car sales
Against the backdrop of the decline in sales of electric vehicles, the total number of new vehicle registrations is also falling in Germany. In the first nine months of the year, they were about 2.12 million. This is 1 percent less than the same period in 2023, although it was defined as “weak” for the car market in Germany, Handelsblatt notes.
In September, the drop is even more significant. Last month, 208,800 new vehicles were registered in Germany, or 7 percent less than the same month last year.
Many market analysts are unanimous – “A specter is roaming the world – the specter of a new trade war”. At stake is who will control the electric vehicle market – Western countries or China. And this is a market that, according to experts’ forecasts, will amount to 786.2 billion dollars worldwide by the end of this year, writes BTA.
Estimates are that by 2029, the global electric vehicle market will reach $1.084 trillion, according to data analysis company Statista.