2024-02-06 05:00:10
As part of its annual barometer deciphering the attractiveness and resilience of territories, the professional real estate consultancy network Arthur Loyd looked at the foreseeable impact of the Zero Net Artificialization (ZAN) objective. Remember that the ZAN law imposes the halving of the consumption of natural, agricultural and forestry soils in France, by 2030 to aim to purely and simply cease the artificialization of soils by 2050.
However, between 2011 and 2020, France artificialized no less than 23,000 hectares each year to respond to the increase in population (+ 2 million inhabitants) and the development of economic activity. By calculating a socio-economic tension index based on demographic and employment growth, Arthur Loyd’s research department was able to determine the theoretical land needs for each employment area. This index is all the higher as the region is dynamic.
Photo credit: Arthur Loyd
While 237,000 hectares were “consumed” between 20011 and 2020, we would have to make do with 124,000 hectares between 2021 and 2030, i.e. a shortfall of 113,000 hectares. According to the specific needs of each sector, Arthur Loyd thus deduced a “theoretical lack of hectares to artificialize”. On this map, the Western arc stands out very strongly with 20 employment areas, or only 7% of the total number of territories of this type which concentrate a quarter of the land shortages. A map which illustrates in particular the strong power of attraction of coastlines. Conversely, 6 territories, mainly located in the Far East, are in surplus: they have used less land-forming in the past than will be allowed in the current decade.
Critical situation
The result is a Top 20 employment areas where the situation promises to be the most critical. According to the study, these land shortages are unsurprisingly expected to worsen the rise in real estate costs in the long term. This concerns the regional metropolises at the top of this ranking, such as Toulouse, Bordeaux, Nantes, Rennes or Lyon, but also much more “peripheral” territories. We thus find Dax very high in this ranking as well as Pau, Perpignan, Auch and Le Mans. “Our study shows that the account is not currently thereunderlines Cevan Torossian, director of the Studies & Research department at Arthur Loyd. The ambitions and the display of this ZAN law are entirely laudable but we lack operational tools and measurements to know precisely its impacts. There should be a moratorium to evaluate these points and refine the approach.”
If the objectives of the ZAN will make it possible to increase the development of industrial wastelands and the conversion of obsolete buildings, these operations remain costly and time-consuming to implement. In the meantime, this should further increase the cost of land and push some elected officials, as is already the case currently, to be reluctant to grant new building permits. Not to mention economic development which could also suffer the repercussions between an increase in the real estate budget for the strongest and the impossibility of setting up their activities for more fragile players.
“What is especially problematic is that this system risks favoring the largest and most powerful, estime Cevan Torossian. For businesses, we are already seeing that administrative facilities are being deployed for giga green factories or solar farms while small companies will find themselves entangled in administrative difficulties. Same thing for housing, where complex restructuring or change of destination operations can be financed in metropolises where real estate is expensive rather than in medium-sized towns.” To avoid these various biases and difficulties, the authors of the study estimate that a moratorium of 18 to 24 months on the application of the ZAN objective would be necessary.
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