2023-06-11 17:48:48
Getty/Montage HuffPost
Donald Trump dominates the Republican primary polls, ahead of Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, and 6 other candidates.
UNITED STATES – Candidates are multiplying among Republicans a year and a half before the American presidential election. After Donald Trumpthe former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, or Senator Tim Scott, the former vice-president Mike Pence and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum formalized their entry into the arena on Wednesday, June 7. The day before, it was Chris Christie, a former ally of Donald Trump who had become one of his most virulent detractors, who entered the race.
To date, they are ten to run for the White House. They could soon be more numerous: the mayor of Miami Francis Suarez has also expressed his desire to take part in the fight. But the number of competitors can still evolve before the first debate which will take place on August 23 where everyone will try to shine, and the first primary vote which will take place in Iowa in early 2024.
Capture écran Five Thirty Eight
Five Thirty Eight poll of Republican primary candidates as of June 6, 2023.
This high figure is a boon for Donald Trump, who –despite a new indictment and 37 counts– currently dominates the polls with more than 30 points ahead of its main competitor, the Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Mike Pence, who dropped Trump after the January 2021 assault on Congress and whose campaign video is careful not to mention or show his former mentor, is a distant third with about 5% of the vote.
I believe in the American people, and I have faith God is not done with America yet. Together, we can bring this Country back, and the best days for the Greatest Nation on Earth are yet to come! ???????? #Pence2024 https://t.co/A8EkqgCDAm
— Mike Pence (@Mike_Pence)
“Pure Trumpists make up one-third (35%) of the Republican electorate, or about 15% of the American electorate. This is little. The problem is that the remaining 65% are very mixed on their reasons for wanting an alternative to Trump”explains to HuffPost Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, lecturer at Sciences Po Saint-Germain-en-Laye and specialist in the United States. This majority of voters will therefore line up in small groups behind the other candidates, who will never be able to compete with the billionaire.
“An opportunity exists against DeSantis”
In addition to his loyal electorate, the former tenant of the White House benefits from the primary system. Indeed in most cases, the inhabitants of each State vote for their favorite candidate during a one-round election and the one who comes first wins all the delegates of the State concerned. Mechanically, the more competitors there are, the less a high score is needed to win. Donald Trump, alone against all, therefore has the advantage “even with 35% of the vote”continues Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy.
There remains an unknown, however, warns the specialist in American politics: “We must not forget that very few voters travel to vote in the primaries. In 2016 and 2020, only 25% of Republicans voted. Will the Trumpists get motivated? Will another candidate be able to mobilize his base? »
Faced with this observation, how can this proliferation of candidates be explained? “Everyone thinks there’s an opportunity with DeSantis still trailing the former president in the polls. Each hopes to recover a segment of the electorate, to be the useful alternative option”, analyzes Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy. Mike Pence, for example, will attract evangelical Christians who will then turn away from the very conservative governor of Florida, a time seen as the only one who can beat the real estate tycoon.
One objective: (a) defeat Donald Trump
Other more strategists are trying to gain visibility with the general public and even with Donald Trump. If the latter is elected, he could choose as vice-president or as member of his administration former presidential candidates. This was the case in 2016 of Chris Christie. The governor of New Jersey failed in the primaries, then became a close adviser to Donald Trump. Before becoming an extremely critical rival in the context of the 2024 presidential election.
I’m running for President of the United States because the truth still matters. We need leaders that are willing to stand up and tell it like it is.
That’s what this campaign is about.
— Chris Christie (@GovChristie)
Conversely, prominent figures have simply chosen not to run in an attempt to get rid of the former president, like Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who has never supported him.
In an interview at Reutershe also expressed his concern. “I feel like we are making the same mistake as in 2016”, he said, referring to the victory of Donald Trump, made possible with 17 candidates (a record) of which 11 took part in the primaries. And to affirm that he was “better for the party to have a small number of candidates with one or two strong candidates, rather than 10 or more who fail to capture attention”.
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu was more blunt in an op-ed published June 5 in the Washington Post “I am not declaring myself a candidate for 2024. Beating Trump is more important. » His message is struggling for the moment to be heard.
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