2024-10-17 10:51:00
« By the end of the decade, more than half of electricity will be produced with low carbon emissions. » In its latest report published on Wednesday 16 October, the International Energy Agency insists and signs. In complete disagreement with these predictions, oil multinationals continue to invest massively in hydrocarbons.
Between Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the international oil company, the connection no longer exists. There is certainly consensus on the explosion of energy needs, linked to the development of Southern countries, but also to the insatiable appetite for artificial intelligence and its thousands of data centers or the growing air conditioning of public spaces and the private sector that responds to global warming as much as contributes to it.
But the Paris-based agency is betting that renewable energies, led by wind and solar on the one hand, and nuclear on the other, will still provide half of the planet’s electricity by 2030. On this point the oil companies are completely disagree. “ We must urgently abandon the fantasy of a gradual disappearance of oil and gas », Annoyed Amin Nasser, the powerful head of the Saudi national oil company Aramco at an industry forum in Houston. « Instead, we must invest in these resources taking into account the realistic evolution of demand. “Saudi Arabia and oil-producing countries in general believe that oil consumption will continue to increase every year,” at least until 2045 ».
An analysis shared by the main private companies: in recent years BP and Shell have also returned to their objectives of reducing oil and gas production. French giant Total plans to increase its oil production by 3% every year until 2030. Next a Senate investigative commission Its French CEO, last April, did not hold back from saying all the bad things he thought about the IEA’s forecasts: “ The IEA’s “net zero” scenario [qui prévoit la neutralité carbone en 2050, NDLR] it is a theoretical scenario », insisted Patrick Pouyané in front of the senators. “ The IEA says so [compte tenu du déclin naturel des champs] we just need to stop investing in oil. The problem is that the IEA itself tells us every week that the demand for oil for the following year is increasing. » Visibly annoyed, the head of Total slams his fist on the table and directly attacks the head of the Agency: ” It’s not me who should ask the question, it’s Mr. Fatih Birol. Because I want us to have a new pope and a new Bible, but that is not the reality of what we are experiencing today. »
“The transition to clean energy is irreversible”
THE ” new pope » in question, however, there is nothing zadista about harem pants. The Turkish economist is a veteran, which perhaps explains the feeling of betrayal felt by industrialists. Before taking over the leadership of the IEA in 2015, he had a career within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). If it is true that it has become aware of the climate emergency, the IEA, created after the first oil shock of 1973 to facilitate the security of energy supplies, remains above all a predictive tool whose reports are still authentic. Before COP28, Fatih Birol was launched a call to the oil tankers who talk about ” moment of truth » : « We will see if you will be partners in the fight against climate change, yes or no. »
But he assures that his forecasts on peak oil have nothing political, citing in particular the slowdown in Chinese demand, the forced electrification of the car fleet and the dominance of renewables in the planet’s energy investments to the point that they now represent two thirds of the sums committed. “ The numbers are always right », said Fatih Birol in September in front of a New York think tank. « The transition to clean energy is irreversible. I see some who celebrate every obstacle that comes along the way, but there is no doubt about the path ahead. »
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