2023-07-23 16:32:54
Wind farm in Uruguay: The South American country has accelerated the expansion of renewables.
Photo: AFP/Nicolas GARCIA
“Rapid advances in the most important clean energy technologies show that the new energy economy is emerging faster than many think.” This is how the International Energy Agency (IEA) sums up a new report that was published a few days ago. This shows significant growth in most relevant areas over the past year: the increase in generation capacity for renewables reached a record high of 340 gigawatts, which roughly corresponds to the output of 230 medium-sized nuclear power plants. At 26 percent, the growth was strongest for solar systems. Total investment in renewables increased 15 percent to $1,600 billion. Sales of electric cars also grew strongly, with an increase of 55 percent. Almost ten million electric cars found a buyer, which corresponded to a market share of 15 percent. This has more than tripled within two years.
The IEA report confirms the findings of other studies that have appeared recently. These also show that most of the technologies critical to achieving net-zero emissions are growing strongly. According to the US scientific think tank Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), the spread of new technologies follows an S-curve: First they grow slowly and then explosively. And when market penetration approaches 100 percent, growth levels off again. The RMI writes that the expansion of solar and wind power as well as batteries is currently in the exponential growth phase and expects that this will remain so in the foreseeable future: “There are still strong drivers for change: learning curves, superior economics, energy security, geopolitical competition, efficiency, climatic necessity and local pollution are still a strong combination for change,” says a current study.
The researchers assume that solar and wind power will more than triple their share of electricity consumption, which is currently twelve percent, in the next seven years. According to the RMI, the world is thus on a development path that would make it possible to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Resistance such as in Germany when switching to climate-friendly heating or in Great Britain against onshore wind power should not stop this development: »There are obstacles everywhere, but growth continues. This is because the obstacles are specific and local, but the solutions are general and global, allowing them to overcome resistance to change,” the report predicts. The producers of fossil fuels would therefore have to be prepared for significantly falling revenues: “The exponential growth has brought the electricity system to a tipping point where the move away from fossil fuels is difficult to reverse.” RMI therefore assumes “that the demand for fossil fuels in the electricity sector has peaked and will be in free fall by the end of the decade”.
Finally, a new study by the World Resources Institute (WRI) shows that very rapid change is possible. For the world to reach its net-zero goal by 2050, the share of solar and wind power in the global electricity mix must increase by 3.1 percentage points every year until 2030, write the researchers at the environmental think tank. In the past, however, several countries have shown that even a significantly higher growth rate can be achieved. The absolute leader here is Uruguay. In the five years from 2013 to 2018, the South American country increased the share of wind and solar power in its electricity mix from one percent to 35 percent. Denmark, Lithuania, Namibia, the Netherlands, Palestine, Jordan and Chile have also experienced five-year periods in which the share of wind and solar power in the energy mix has increased by more than four percentage points per year. For the WRI, these examples show “that countries with very different requirements can quickly switch to renewable energies”.
Become a member of the nd.Genossenschaft!
Since January 1, 2022, the »nd« will be published as an independent left-wing newspaper owned by the workforce and readers. Be there and support media diversity and visible left-wing positions as a member of the cooperative. Fill out the membership form now.
More info on www.dasnd.de/genossenschaft
#Energy #transition #Scurve #renewables