It has been a year since fights and deaths took place in the north of the multi-ethnic state, in the province of Tigray and some neighboring areas. Since June, the units of the Ethiopian army have suffered one defeat after the other, which brought an initially triumphant advance to an abrupt end. First, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was able to recapture the capital of the embattled region with Mek’ele, then it advanced across the borders of the province to the south and east and conquered important cities and transport hubs. As a result, communications between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s armed forces and the north, west and east have been severely disrupted. Since mid-October, the rebels are said to have been less than 150 kilometers from the capital Addis Ababa.
The country is exposed to a war fury that has put both sides in an “all-or-nothing” state. War crimes are committed, often massacres of civilians, based on ethnic hatred between the Tigray people and other ethnic groups such as the Amhars (27 percent of the population). Hundreds of thousands are on the run, international aid is not getting there. In addition to Tigray, provinces such as Amhara and Afar are now threatened with hunger.
Declared enemies
At first, the Federal Army seemed to have an easy time of it, and it was by no means foreseeable that the tide could turn like this. Before Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, the TPLF had ruled Ethiopia for a quarter of a century in favor of its own ethnic group. But then the new strong man sent the front back to their home province in the north on the border with Eritrea after they had lost power. The uprising of the TPLF against the central government began there in November 2020, also because Abiy Ahmed did little to de-escalate and let his army strike. But the TPLF leadership elite, the senior officers with long civil war experience, the specialists, including the heavy weapons, belonged to the TPLF. The associations they lead are experienced in combat and disciplined. Their combatants in their Chinese plastic sandals are reminiscent of militiamen, but they are often professional soldiers and war veterans who were already involved in the war for Eritrea that Abiy Ahmed ended. For which he received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
At the same time, new allies of the TPLF are stirring, such as the troops of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which can endanger Addis Ababa, which is located in the middle of the region of the same name inhabited by the Oromo people. The OLA is in the process of cutting off traffic routes in the south and east. Abiy Ahmed then declared a state of emergency for the entire country, had this confirmed by parliament, and has almost unlimited powers. Every Ethiopian can now be called up for military service, anyone can be arrested without a court order, all goods of importance to the war effort can be confiscated – the media and political parties can be banned at any time. The residents of Addis Ababa are urged to train and arm themselves to defend the city. In a mood that was at times hysterical, members of the ethnic groups that had been declared mortal enemies were arrested, which constituted ethnic cleansing. In view of this situation, the US embassy has strongly recommended that its citizens leave the country.
The Ethiopian government is now being put under pressure from all sides to prevent a “great war” in the Horn of Africa. If that moves inexorably closer, the state of Ethiopia can break up. Jeffrey Feltman, US special envoy for the region, tries all the more to convince the warring parties of the advantages of a ceasefire and early peace negotiations. But even the African Union (AU), which is based in Addis Ababa, is powerless, as is the EU, which threatens sanctions if the fighting does not end. Of course, this is less likely than ever since the Ethiopian Air Force began bombing cities in the north in retaliation for the advance of the TPLF. Abiy Ahmed has evidently committed himself to continuing the fight against the rebels by all means. This is the only way to explain that his government is buying as many drones from Turkey as it can get. As long as the air force manages to keep the most important traffic connection to the north – especially the one to the port of Djibouti – open, these weapons will also be delivered and used, regardless of losses. In the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan a year ago, Turkish-made drones tipped the balance in favor of the regime in Baku.
Back to 2018
The beleaguered head of government is looking for allies in Africa who are aware that a collapsed Ethiopia leaves fragile states such as Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia in a wake of disruption. For the time being, Abiy Ahmed’s goal should be to avoid a battle for the five million metropolis of Addis Ababa. It could turn into some sort of last stand against the Tigray archenemies. Can it be stopped when the siege is already looming?
If the prime minister has to resign and flee, a solution would be conceivable to save Ethiopia the lot of a “failed state”. The warring camps could return as a compromise to the ethnic proportionality in politics, administration and the military that was practiced until 2018. With some land gains for the Tigray and Oromo, with losses for the Amhars and other groups. The more autonomy the ethnic groups achieve in the regions they rule, the weaker the central state and the lower the share of resources and power that the smaller of the more than 120 ethnic groups represented in this multi-ethnic state can claim. The next rebellions would be programmed, because there is no such thing as an “Ethiopian nation”, even if the central government is vigorously used in the war propaganda. To die for the fatherland? Which? The West will watch and wait after the debacle in Afghanistan.
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