The planned appointment of the far-right Giorgia Meloni as president of italian government will break the precarious triumvirate Berlin-Paris-Romewhich has tried to unite the discordant positions of the Twenty seven during the last 18 months and will aggravate the internal leadership crisis in the European Union (EU). At the current crucial geopolitical and socio-economic crossroads, when the EU most needs political leadership capable of channeling disparate national interests towards common goals, fragmentation and Italia extend the pole far-right and eurosceptic of Hungary y Poland. To this must be added the political influence that will be exercised in the Swedish Government and Parliament by Sweden Democrats –second most voted force despite its neo-Nazi roots– and the ultra influence they already exert Vox in the Spanish PP and the National Rally of Marine Le Pen on the French political agenda.
The German chancellor, the social democrat Olaf Scholz, despite the enormous economic weight of his country, has not achieved the determining influence of his predecessor, the conservative Angela Merkel. Scholz leaned on the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and in the until now President of the Italian Government, Mario Draghi, to reinforce the political coordination of the Twenty-seven. This triumvirate benefited from the support of the most pro-European governments, such as spainPortugal, Belgium and Holland. But the German inflexibility in certain areas and the internal conflicts of its government coalition with verdes y liberals have limited Scholz’s influence.
From the start of the Ukraine crisisScholz’s international leadership has been further eroded by unfair criticism from the political and media environment of USA, UK, Poland and the Baltic countries to the ‘Ostpolitik’, the Eastern policy initiated in 1969 that opened the way for the agreed end of the Cold Warand the policy of gas deals with Russia, which powered the EU economy for more than two decades thanks to the supply of gas at very low prices. Likewise, Scholz is criticized for insufficient warmongering, despite the heavy weapons shipped to Ukraine and the 100,000 million euros to reinforce the German army.
Macron loses weight
Macron’s European influence has been weakened after losing the absolute parliamentary majority in June and depending on agreements with the 151 deputies of the leftist coalition, the 89 of Le Pen and the 62 of the Republicans (conservatives). Macron’s internal difficulties are so marked that this week he has threatened to dissolve the Assembly and call elections if the opposition blocks his pension reform. Macron’s diplomatic initiatives to first prevent the invasion of Ukraine and then to try to end the war have unleashed, like Scholz, sharp American, British, Polish and Baltic criticism, which has also eroded his European leadership.
Despite the resolute Europeanism of the Spanish Government, in contrast to the previous Executives of the PP, the influence in the EU of Pedro Sanchez is limited by the fragility of its parliamentary majority and by the active hostile campaign of the European People’s Partywhich predominates in the European Comission and the Eurocamera. However, Spain is very active and quickly brings together more than a dozen EU members around its proposals.
Leadership of Von der Leyen
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, tries to assume the EU political leadership, taking advantage of the erosion of the influence of Berlin and Paris. Von der Leyen has been particularly active in promoting packages of hard sanctions against Russia, that follow the US agenda that does not depend on imported energy like the EU, but underestimated the massive impact on European companies and citizens of these sanctions and the foreseeable Russian retaliation.
Discomfort over the rise in the cost of living and energy was key to Meloni’s victory in Italy and Le Pen’s electoral success in France. The expectations of the ultra Alternative for Germany They have risen four points in a few months. The massive demonstrations in Prague and France anticipate a hot autumn that can destabilize an EU at risk of recession. While Germany mobilizes 200 billion to protect its citizens and companies from a energy bill exorbitant, the European Commission still does not specify how to reform the prices of electricity and gas.