After the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad, Syria is facing a new beginning – and huge problems. But which direction is the country heading? Middle East expert Helberg gives an overview.
In the end everything happened very quickly. The Assad family ruled Syria for 54 years. For the last 14 years, dictator Bashar al-Assad has held on to power through violent civil war. But then the regime collapsed in just a few weeks. The rebels stormed Damascus, Assad fled the country and citizens looted his residence. That was a month ago – what has happened since then?
For Kristin Helberg, Syria is at a crossroads. The Middle East expert and journalist lived and worked in Syria for years – until the regime refused her entry in spring 2011. “The dynamics of change in Syria are dizzying,” she says in an interview with t-online.
Since the fall of Assad, Helberg has observed how various forces in Syria are struggling to have a say in the country’s development. “Ahmad al-Sharaa meets a lot of people every day and tries to build trust,” says Helberg. But the interim government of the former leader of the rebel group HTS (“Haiʾat Tahrir ash-Sham”) has also repeatedly triggered worrying news.
For example, the new Education Minister Mohammed al-Kadri adjusted school curricula to eliminate glorification of the Assad regime. But he went even further and immediately cut out the theory of evolution. “To establish one’s own world view in this way goes beyond the competence of a transitional government,” criticizes Kristin Helberg. Many Syrians reacted indignantly, and the ministry then declared that the changes were “temporary.”
Kristin Helberg is a German journalist from Heilbronn. She lived in Damascus from 2001 to 2008 and reported from Syria for ARD, ORF and Swiss television, among others. She has so far written three books about the country and the civil war.
According to Helberg, the interim government is currently often acting in a “non-transparent manner”, which is fueling uncertainty. That is why the “National Dialogue Conference” is crucial. The de-facto ruler Ahmad al-Sharaa is currently preparing the conference; it is supposed to elect a transitional government, draw up a constitution and prepare elections for the country. Men and women from the people should be invited to this. However, Helberg estimates that the process could take another three or four years.
But before that, al-Sharaa and the interim government need to win over the other actors in the country for the new Syria. “The integration of the Kurds in the northeast and the Druze in the south will be crucial for the unity of Syria,” says Helberg. Sharaa is currently speaking to Mazlum Abdi, the leader of the Kurdish-dominated military alliance “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF). Helberg estimates the chances are good that the sides could come to an agreement. “It’s running pretty professionally. Little is leaking out, which is a good sign.”
In order to integrate the Kurdish-dominated northeast into the new state, a decentralized order is necessary. The military units of the SDF would have to be integrated into the state defense forces, but would be allowed to remain stationed in their home regions. “Practically speaking, the Druze are now demanding the same thing, which could simplify the negotiations,” says Helberg.
But it could be a while before the civil war in Syria really ends. This is also because two foreign actors continue to be involved in hostilities in Syria. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is destroying Syria’s military infrastructure and occupying parts of the country in the southwest, Turkish-controlled militias are attacking the Kurds in the northeast. At least 322 people were killed last month, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. “Turkey and Israel are making the restart difficult,” says Helberg, and calls on the states to exercise restraint.
In view of these many imponderables, the expert considers a development in Syria after Assad’s fall to be “remarkable”. “The state simply continues to function,” says Helberg. After the regime collapsed, there was no decline or internal fighting. “People are going back to work to keep everything running. Everyone feels responsible for the new state.” And this despite the fact that many people have a disturbed relationship with the government because it has acted violently and corruptly for decades.