After two straight strong weeks, we were bound to have a bit of a step back, but hitting on five of the top 10 defenses in Week 7 isn’t a bad week overall. The Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills, and Minnesota Vikings all finished inside the top five, each scoring in double digits. Additionally, we correctly identified both the Rams and Colts as back-half of the top 10 plays, compensating for our misses on the Chargers and Packers.
Despite their struggles, the Packers managed to score five points, reinforcing my belief that I’d rather trust an elite defense in a challenging matchup than gamble on a lower-tier defense in a favorable matchup. All three teams – Minnesota, Detroit, and Green Bay – had tough matchups, yet Minnesota totaled 11 points, Detroit achieved six points, and the Packers ended with five points. While five to six points won’t win your week, they help you preserve waiver money or bench space for a streamer while still delivering a usable performance. Indeed, all of the top five defenses from last week scored defensive touchdowns, which is hard to bank on consistently. Therefore, I prefer the reliability of an elite defense rather than hoping for a big play from a lesser option.
This week promises different challenges with numerous strong defenses facing favorable matchups. Nonetheless, some fantasy players might be tempted to deploy mediocre or even subpar defenses due to a spate of injuries affecting offensive stars like Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin.
2024 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 7: 5-5
SEASON-LONG: 38-32 (54.3%)
BOD Formula and Philosophy
To achieve accuracy in predictions, I utilize the following formula:
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTION x 2) + FORCED INCOMPLETE RATE + TACKLES FOR LOSS/GAME + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
DIVIDED BY
(EPA RATE ALLOWED + OPPONENT SCORING RATE X 1.5)
Now, let’s see how these defenses rank for Week 8:
We’re returning to the Broncos as my top defense of the week after an impressive performance against the Saints in Week 7. They face the Panthers, who allow the 8th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Additionally, the Broncos may welcome back Patrick Surtain, who was sidelined recently. The Broncos rank 1st in PFF’s Pass Rush production grade and are a solid bet this week.
Although we anticipated the Lions struggling due to injuries, they showed grit with four sacks last week. The Lions now play the Titans, who give up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. While Mason Rudolph was under center for the Titans last week, they still allowed multiple sacks, making them an appealing matchup for the Lions.
The Vikings continue to be undervalued, which is perplexing considering their elite performance throughout the season. They are set to play a Rams team that allows the 9th-most points to defenses, and despite any potential returns like Cooper Kupp, I am confident in the Vikings’ ability to perform.
Rank
The Steelers are poised for success against a weak Giants offense, which has shown vulnerability this season. Their struggling offensive line and the absence of Andrew Thomas makes them a target for Pittsburgh’s defense.
Despite their strong real-life performance, the Chiefs have struggled to score fantasy points recently. However, they have a favorable matchup against the Raiders, allowing for potential defensive production in Week 8.
The Chargers are still expected to perform well in a favorable matchup, particularly against a Saints offense that has also been struggling with injuries.
It’s essential to keep monitoring player health, as returning stars could alter the landscape for various defenses this week. For instance, if Deebo Samuel is ruled out, we should reconsider the rankings for the 49ers against the Cowboys.
As we move forward, it’s vital to stay updated on injury reports and player statuses, which could impact fantasy football decisions significantly. What are your thoughts on this week’s matchups? Are you sticking with elite defenses despite challenging matchups, or are you willing to gamble on streaming options?
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