‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Sparks $12 Million in Previews, Box Office Outlook Remains Cautious
A strong start for the James Cameron sequel, but analysts urge patience as the holiday season and unique audience behavior for the Avatar franchise complicate projections.
The highly anticipated Avatar: Fire and Ash ignited the box office on Thursday with an estimated $12 million in preview earnings from showtimes beginning at 2 PM, according to industry sources. While a substantial figure, the number is $5 million lower than the $17 million earned during previews by 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water, which ultimately grossed $53.2 million on its opening Friday and $134.1 million over the three-day weekend.
However, a key difference exists: the current release is closer to the Christmas holiday. “Audiences are bound to come out for this 3 hour and 17 minute James Cameron threequel once they’re past distractions,” one analyst noted. Tracking currently estimates a $90 million to $105 million domestic weekend for the film, penned by Cameron, Rick Jaffa, and Amanda Silver, with story contributions from Josh Friedman and Shane Salerno. Despite the initial numbers, experts caution against premature conclusions. “When it comes to assessing the outcome of any Avatar movie, hold your breath until late January,” the analyst added.
The $12 million preview performance aligns with recent follow-up releases. Warner Bros.’ Dune: Part Two, which began previews at 3 PM on Thursday, earned $32.2 million on its way to an $82.5 million three-day opening. Similarly, Disney/Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World garnered $40.9 million in Thursday night previews, ultimately achieving an $88.8 million weekend. However, the dynamics differ between the franchises. “Marvel movies carry a lot of FOMO, hence the rush out,” a studio insider explained, “while Avatar movies are about finding the right showtimes and seats.”
Critical reception for Fire and Ash currently stands at 69% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, compared to 81% for the 2009 original and 76% for The Way of Water.
‘The Housemaid’ and ‘David’ Show Promise Alongside Blockbuster
Beyond the Avatar juggernaut, other films are also vying for audience attention. Lionsgate’s R-rated thriller The Housemaid, starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, generated previews between $2.25 million and $2.3 million. While initial industry forecasts exceeded $20 million, Lionsgate is aiming for a result “in the teens,” prioritizing long-term performance over the holiday season for the Paul Feig-directed adaptation of Freida McFadden’s novel. The thriller currently boasts a 77% certified fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Previews were comparable to those of Hustlers ($2.5 million), Don’t Worry Darling ($3.1 million), and Where the Crawdads Sing ($2.3 million).
Angel Studios’ animated feature David, which began showtimes at noon, earned approximately $1.8 million in previews. Many predict the faith-based family film will secure the No. 2 spot this weekend with a potential $20 million to $25 million haul. Presales on Wednesday totaled $14 million. While critics give the film a 63% fresh rating, audiences on Rotten Tomatoes have awarded it a remarkable 97% approval score.
Paramount’s SpongeBob Movie: The Search for Squarepants collected $1.3 million in previews, mirroring the performance of DreamWorks Animation’s Boss Baby 2: Family Business, which ultimately earned $16 million over its opening weekend. The outlook for the fourth SpongeBob installment is in the teens to $20 million range, bolstered by a franchise-best 85% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
Studio representatives declined to comment on the preview figures.