Vienna. Talking instead of negotiating and waiting instead of knowing. Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen postponed giving the mandate to form a government and asked all three parties – Herbert Kickl (FPÖ), Karl Nehammer (ÖVP) and Andreas Babler (SPÖ) – to come to the table. Since at least two of the three “major” parties are required for a stable government in any possible constellation, the top candidates should “credibly clarify by the end of next week what cooperation is or is not possible in principle”, according to Van der Bellen.
Who invites when?
“Krone” has learned from well-informed sources that Walsieger will ‘immediately’ contact FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl with both party leaders and convey to them offers for talks. Both parties stated that they would comply with the President’s request and were ready to meet. Both the ÖVP and the SPÖ had already effectively ruled out a coalition with Herbert Kickl.
It has been observed in some federal states that such statements are less valid after the elections, especially in the ÖVP. This is exactly why van der Bellen wants clarity in advance. Three scenarios are considered possible.
Scenario 1: Van der Bellen appoints Kickl
Despite everything, the scenario in which one of the two parties opens up to FPÖ leader Kickl does not seem realistic, but it is possible. In this case, the Federal President will probably not be able to avoid giving the task to Kickl. In his talks with the ÖVP, Kickl will probably make important offers to his counterpart that the ÖVP would not normally be able to refuse.
Although PR Advisor Rudi Fußi’s campaign has reignited the debate over a new leader, it is almost unthinkable that the FPÖ will open up to the SPÖ.
Even if Nehammer and Babler stick to their policy of not forming a coalition with Kickl, the Federal President may appoint Kickl to form a government. By doing this, he would simply be following previous political conventions. Conclusion: After Van der Bellen’s latest statements, this option is no longer realistic.
Scenario 2: The ball is in Karl Nehammer’s court
If ÖVP leader Nehammer and SPÖ leader Andreas Babler stick to their statements as expected, Van der Bellen could ask the second-strongest party, the ÖVP, to form a stable government for the first time. Purely mathematically, ÖVP would only need SPÖ for this. But from a realpolitik perspective, a two-party coalition with the SPÖ is unlikely, even impossible, due to the smallest possible excess of power. NEOS is seen as the most likely partner. Nehammer’s problem: Powerful ÖVP provincial leaders, especially Johanna Mikl-Leitner and Thomas Stelzer, are still said to be against a three-party experiment. Fußi’s open rebellion against Babler could make a coalition with the SPÖ, whatever its structure, even less attractive.
Conclusion: The most likely scenario is that the President tasks Nehammer, who is still Chancellor, with forming a government – even if the ÖVP itself would prefer that the President at least pass the ball directly to Kickl.
Scenario 3: Open to (almost) anything
It is at least conceivable that Van der Bellen will continue to leave things open and leave the ball in the party leaders’ court. Before Van der Bellen’s statement on Wednesday, it was already expected that the Federal President would not give the authority to form a government. In the political bubbles in Vienna, it was assumed that he would instead want the parties to come to him “with a ready-made solution”. This would ensure that the Federal President would hold all the trump cards.
In this scenario, a lot also depends on the SPÖ, as it too is playing poker and wants to wait for the Styrian elections to further strengthen its bargaining position with a weak ÖVP result. However, Nehammer and Babler should not give themselves too much time. “We need clarity, not empty kilometers,” the President said in his speech. On the other hand, it seems unclear whether Van der Bellen would approve of a quick solution with Kickl at the helm.
Conclusion: It is unlikely that Van der Bellen will continue to play for time after his speech on Wednesday, but it cannot be ruled out that he will continue to play for time that, according to his own statements, the country does not have.
Scenario 4: New elections as a last resort
If neither Herbert Kickl nor Karl Nehammer manages to form a stable government, new elections may be held (or may be forced to be held) due to the lack of alternatives. “The problems we face are very big and very urgent. We need solutions,” Van der Bellen said in his speech. Insiders believe that it is possible that the Federal President will set a deadline for the formation of a new government. If this fails, a new election may be called.
Conclusion: This scenario is very unlikely. However, what is more realistic is that ÖVP or SPÖ will move away from their own lines and decide to work together with a sense of responsibility for the country. After all, the new elections are likely to further strengthen the party leader that both of them had excluded despite winning the election: Herbert Kickl.
2024-10-10 11:54:00