Trump’s second term’s talent cradle think tank ‘AFPI’… AFPI launched after defeat in 2020 presidential election
Developing policies, holding fundraising events, etc… Behind-the-scenes preparations with the goal of ‘Trump’s second term’
“Humility – Execute plans with a quiet attitude”… Conservative think tank Heritage Foundation aside
Even advancing to the second administration,including as Minister of Justice… 300 administrative orders prepared in advance
Criticism of “Trump’s parrot without innovation”… Possibility of ideological division within the conservative camp
《Analysis of Trump’s preliminary White house ‘AFPI’
The America First Policy Institute (AFPI), a ‘pro-trump’ conservative think tank that produced key figures to be appointed to the second administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, is receiving a lot of attention. Let’s analyze what kind of place AFPI is and who works there.》
US President-elect Donald Trump’s first public speech after winning the presidential election on the 14th of last month (local time) was the annual event of AFPI, a ‘pro-Trump’ conservative think tank. At the event held at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, President-elect Trump first mentioned AFPI’s ‘two top’ founders.
Saying thank you was just the beginning. Sence then, many ‘AFPI graduates’, including the two, have appeared in key appointments in the White House and administration for the ‘Trump second term’ that have been announced one after another. AFPI, which was launched promptly after President-elect Trump was defeated in the 2020 presidential election and has pursued only one goal, ‘recreating the government,’ has begun to advance in earnest.
Traditionally,the most core role of think tanks is policy advancement and research. However, AFPI has focused thoroughly on serving as ‘Trump’s unofficial campaign office’ over the past four years. Given this situation, there are mixed views on whether they will be able to exert their own influence even after the launch of the second Trump administration. Though, there is no disagreement that AFPI has contributed to President-elect Trump’s ‘unstoppable run’ in this presidential election by publicizing various policies and preparing a talent pool. We looked at AFPI, which is called Trump’s ’White house in waiting’ and ‘Shadow Cabinet’, focusing on the people involved and their actions.
● ‘Trump’s 2nd term’ goal: close allies unite
![Four years of preparation for re-election… Loyalist ‘prospective White House’ rises to the surface[글로벌 포커스]](https://dimg.donga.com/wps/NEWS/IMAGE/2024/12/06/130589716.1.png "Four years of preparation for re-election… Loyalist ‘prospective White House’ rises to the surface[글로벌 포커스]")
AFPI was created in December 2020 by a collaboration between Brooke Rollins and Linda McMahon, who served as Director of the White House Domestic Policy Council and Administrator of the Small Business Administration, respectively, during the first Trump administration, and Tim Dunn, a billionaire oil businessman. Rollins, who was the chairman of the conservative non-profit association ‘Texas Public Policy Foundation’, started by suggesting to Dunn, who worked with him as a board member of the foundation, that they create a national organization that would lay the foundation for Trump’s second administration. And AFPI was officially launched in April of the following year.From its name, AFPI explicitly emphasized its pro-Trump tendencies. He did not hide his bias by using President-elect Trump’s political slogan, ‘America First’. Seo Jeong-geon, professor of political science and diplomacy at Kyung Hee University (chairman of the Korean Political Science Association), said, “Among the think tanks currently in Washington, AFPI is virtually the only one with a direct link to President-elect Trump.”
Looking at the personnel composition, many of them are from the first Trump administration. There are dozens of people, including former white House Deputy Press Secretary Hogan Gidley, former Acting secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf, and former White House Director of Intergovernmental Affairs Douglas Holscher. Because of this, there was ridicule that AFPI was acting as a ‘landing pad’ for former Trump officials. The British daily Guardian also pointed out, “This is an organization that was used as a means of making money when members of the Trump administration were unable to find new jobs due to their poor reputation after leaving the cabinet.”
Of course, officially AFPI represents a non-profit organization that is not directly involved in political activities.However, in reality, it has unnoticedly supported president-elect Trump in many ways and played a role similar to the SS.According to the New York Times (NYT), during this presidential election period, AFPI directors gave a total of more than $31 million (approximately KRW 43.9 billion) to Make America Great Again (MAGA), a super PAC (PAC, political action committee) that supports Trump. donated. AFPI’s sister organization ‘America First Works (AFW)’ actively assisted Trump’s campaign in swing states. The NYT reported that AFPI “tried to please President-elect Trump” by holding a fundraising event at Mar-a-Lago every year and paying a large amount of facility usage fees.
President-elect Trump has also consistently responded. He expressed his full support in a statement shortly after the launch of AFPI, saying, “We strive not only to preserve the ancient achievements of our administration, but also to promote the ‘America First’ agenda into the future.” After leaving the White House, president-elect Trump’s first official schedule in Washington in July 2022 was also AFPI’s first policy meeting. until then, President-elect Trump had not formalized his bid for the presidency. However, in his keynote speech that day, President-elect Trump expressed his intention to run for re-election, saying, “We must fix our country.”
● He humbled himself and read Trump’s intentions and succeeded.
The most vital research conducted by AFPI ahead of this presidential election was to interview former administration officials more than 1,000 times and analyze all executive orders of the Joe Biden administration. The goal was to create a priority list of policies that would be key to effectively promoting the Trump administration’s agenda. Politico,a political media outlet,quoted a Republican lobbyist and said,“AFPI was preparing various options to present as soon as Trump took office.”
recently concluded major appointments for Trump’s second term, AFPI personnel played a role as a ‘cradle of talent’ by spreading out across various fields. The top two, Representative Rollins and Chairman McMahon, were nominated as Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Education, respectively. Pam Bondi, who leads the AFPI Litigation Center and the Law and Justice center and has passionately supported the ‘election fraud theory’ in presidential battleground states, was nominated as Attorney General.
In addition, former National Security Advisor John Ratcliffe, co-chair of the AFPI Center for American Security, and former Vice President National Security Advisor Keith Kellogg were nominated as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, respectively. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director Cathy Patel also joined the AFPI Center for American Security on October 22.
AFPI did not have much influence from the beginning among the forces preparing for Trump’s re-election. In particular, the checks on the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank established in 1973 and contributing to the Republican Party’s rule for decades, were severe. after more than two years of fierce competition between the two think tanks,AFPI won the final victory thanks to its ‘attitude to stay out of the spotlight and not go against Trump’s wishes.’
As recently as 2016, President-elect trump and his associates, who were wholly ‘political heretics’, had many conflicts with the existing Republican Party. At that time, the chaos of the transition was exposed to the outside world, leading to the transition chairman resigning midway. The AFPI leadership decided that in order to avoid experiencing such confusion again, they had to move smoothly behind the scenes and minimize controversy. Kellyanne Conway, former White House senior adviser and president of the AFPI American Children’s Center, said, “Senior staff from the first trump term planned and executed accurately with their heads down and a humble attitude.”
On the other hand, the Heritage Foundation increased its external activities, such as actively promoting ‘Project 2025’, which contains a plan to take over the government, but faced a backlash. This is because the Democratic party attacked the contents of ‘Project 2025’ as extreme, and public opinion also turned around. the Trump camp also publicly drew a line with them in July.It was the moment when the competition between AFPI and the Heritage Foundation ended with AFPI winning.
In fact, the transition process for Trump’s second term is proceeding much more quickly and efficiently, using systematic support from loyalists as a stepping stone. Mauricio clavercaron, who served as Trump’s first special envoy for Latin America and president of the Development Bank of the United States, said, “This is as his associates know Trump’s intentions and work methods,” and added, “In the next administration, the cabinet will not serve the president, rather than the president serving the cabinet. “It is,” he pointed out.
● Stronger Trumpism… “Parrot” cadastral map
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AFPI has also prepared various policy options to immediately implement a stronger ‘Trumpism’ than during the first term. Rollins has mentioned that since April, more than half a year before the presidential election, he has already drafted about 300 executive orders to be signed immediately if President-elect Trump wins. According to Politico, after President-elect Trump’s re-election was confirmed last month, AFPI asked major Republican lobbyists to “review plans and potential actions to propose to federal agencies during the first 200 days of Trump’s second term.”
Their policy line can be understood through the policy collection ‘The America First Agenda’. The policy book presents key tasks divided into a total of 10 areas, including the economy, healthcare, education, and security, and deals with ‘Drain the Swamp’ as the last item.
This metaphor, which originated from the 1980s concept that “to eradicate malaria, we must drain swamps to prevent mosquitoes from breeding,” is interpreted to mean that the influence of interest groups and lobbyists should be reduced in Washington politics. AFPI has argued that layoffs for federal government employees should be made more flexible and the powers of government agencies should be considerably reduced. This is due to the judgment that the driving force of state affairs was weakened due to some public officials rebelling during Trump’s first term. This means that in Trump’s second term, we will preemptively prevent situations in which public officials face difficulties due to lack of cooperation.
Though, many assess that AFPI’s policies are actually no different from what President-elect Trump has advocated as the 2016 presidential election. There is little new or innovative content. For example,policy proposals such as reforming the international trade system in favor of the United States,completing the Mexican border wall,and restricting transgender rights are things that President-elect Trump has emphasized for a long time.The british daily Telegraph downplayed this policy book, saying it was “already adopted by the Trump camp before the presidential election.”
For this reason, it is unclear how much influence the AFPI graduates who have been placed in Trump’s second cabinet will secure and exercise in the future.Some predict that the radius of activity will be limited due to the nature of think tanks with a short history. Lee Jong-gon, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Ewha Womans University, said, “Unlike typical think tanks, AFPI appears to be an organization created by those who follow a person named ‘Trump.’” Professor Seo also predicted, “AFPI’s role was at the level of promoting the Trump agenda during the presidential election process,” and added, “It is unlikely that President-elect Trump will rely on this organization even after taking office.”
On the other hand, Park In-hwi, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University, said, “AFPI may have lower overall capabilities than traditional large-scale think tanks, but it can be more agile and efficient when policy proposals are needed in specific situations.”
Some say that once the Trump administration takes office in earnest, AFPI may face a clash of values with non-AFPI members. Politico said, “Trump concurrently appointed Representative Rollins, an ‘orthodox conservative’ who emphasizes free marketism, and Vice President-elect JD Vance, a ‘populist’ who defends the working class.” He added, “The conservative camp, which was sinking below the surface during the presidential election, He predicted that the ideological division between the two will likely emerge in earnest after the launch of the second administration.
What immigration reforms are being proposed too align with the ‘America First’ agenda for TrumpS potential second term?
Policy proposals aimed at reinforcing the ’America First’ agenda that defined Trump’s previous term. These proposals cover a wide range of issues, including immigration reform, trade policies, and education reforms, all intended to resonate with trump’s base and address their concerns directly.
In preparation for a possible second term, AFPI is reportedly focusing on a strategy that emphasizes a “parrot” approach—essentially echoing Trump’s previous policies while also introducing new initiatives that would enhance their effectiveness. This entails a systematic analysis of the successes and shortcomings of prior policies and making necessary adjustments to ensure thay align with Trump’s vision and the current political climate.
Moreover, AFPI’s role as a talent incubator for the upcoming administration cannot be understated. with key personnel already positioned for important roles, it seems Trump aims to establish a government that is not just supportive but also ideologically aligned with his objectives.The strategic relocations of former administration officials into prominent roles within the new cabinet indicate a intentional effort to foster continuity and loyalty within the government.
the competitive dynamic between AFPI and customary conservative organizations, such as the Heritage Foundation, has underscored a shift within the Republican Party. The party is increasingly aligning with the populist sentiments championed by Trump, distancing itself from more establishment-oriented factions.This shift has resulted in a reconfigured landscape wherein organizations like AFPI are gaining influence and power as they further entrench Trump’s political ideology.
As the political climate evolves, it remains to be seen how these internal dynamics will play out in the broader context of American politics. The effectiveness of AFPI in supporting Trump’s political aspirations and executing policy changes will be crucial in shaping the future of the Republican Party and the trajectory of the Trump movement. As the 2024 election approaches, the stakes for both the association and the party are extraordinarily high, with implications not only for Trump’s political future but also for the United States as a whole.