Fragments of the faces of the three most voted candidates (Macron, Mélenchon and Le Pen) in the recent elections for the Presidency of France. /
Will Emmanuel Macron have a free hand to apply his program? It seems that a large majority of French people expect him to have a cohabitation with an opposition government that prevents him from applying it
After an electoral campaign fundamentally marked by the war in Ukraine, French voters chose Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen to go to the second round of the presidential elections in France.
Of the more than thirty potential candidates, only twelve were able to attend the first round held on April 10, after having gathered the 500 endorsements from mayors and elected officials.
Those twelve candidates represented a wide range from the extreme right (Marine Le Pen, Eric Zemmour, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan) to the extreme left (Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Nathalie Artaud, Phillipe Poutou; Fabien Roussel), passing through the parties in the center of the political board (Anne Hidalgo: Socialist Party, Valérie Pécresse: The Republicans, Emmanuel Macron: On the Move; Yannick Jadot: The Greens) and a candidate without a label, defender of Rural France (Jean Lassalle).
The striking and worrying thing about that first round was the radicalization of the French electorate, with which the traditional parties (Socialist Party; The Republicans) were totally annihilated, The Greens were very far from their objectives, the candidate Macron obtained 27.8% of the votes while the extremes obtained almost 60%, divided between the extreme right (32.3% in total with Marine Le Pen at 23.1% of the votes, just behind Macron) and the extreme left (25, 7% in total, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 22%).
After an electoral campaign fundamentally marked by the war in Ukraine, French voters chose Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen to go to the second round of the presidential elections in France.
Of the more than thirty potential candidates, only twelve were able to attend the first round held on April 10, after having gathered the 500 endorsements from mayors and elected officials.
Those twelve candidates represented a wide range from the extreme right (Marine Le Pen, Eric Zemmour, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan) to the extreme left (Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Nathalie Artaud, Phillipe Poutou; Fabien Roussel), passing through the parties in the center of the political board (Anne Hidalgo: Socialist Party, Valérie Pécresse: The Republicans, Emmanuel Macron: On the Move; Yannick Jadot: The Greens) and a candidate without a label, defender of Rural France (Jean Lassalle).
The striking and worrying thing about that first round was the radicalization of the French electorate, with which the traditional parties (Socialist Party; The Republicans) were totally annihilated, The Greens were very far from their objectives, the candidate Macron obtained 27.8% of the votes while the extremes obtained almost 60%, divided between the extreme right (32.3% in total with Marine Le Pen at 23.1% of the votes, just behind Macron) and the extreme left (25, 7% in total, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 22%).
Abstentionism
The abstention on Sunday (28.1%) confirms an increasing trend in the last presidential elections since 2007, when only 16% of voters did not go to vote. Compared to the 2017 elections, it has increased by 2, 5 %. All this demonstrates a greater disenchantment, if not disinterest, for public affairs, with all the risks that this entails for the democratic system and social coexistence. One of President Macron’s tasks will undoubtedly be to reconcile a deeply divided and disillusioned France.
Legislative elections in June, the “third round”
Now it’s time for the third round, the legislative elections in June that will determine Emmanuel Macron’s room for maneuver to govern the country and carry out the announced reforms.
In 2017, with the help of its allies (UDI, MODEM), it obtained an absolute majority that allowed it to enforce its program to a large extent. Without waiting, Marine Le Pen yesterday encouraged her voters to confirm the progression of her party in the upcoming June elections.
For his part, after the first round, Jean-Luc Mélenchon already appealed to his followers to put his party, La Francia insumisa, in a position to be the most voted and essential to lead the Government of France and make him the new first Minister.
The leader of France Insumisa, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, in Marseille after voting in the second round of the French presidential elections. /
Cohabitation
We will have to see what agreements that party reaches with the Greens, the Communist Party or the moribund Socialist Party in the different constituencies to assess its chances of forcing the new president to offer him the leadership of the Government and obtain the support of the National Assembly .
This would create a new cohabitation between a President of the Republic of one political color and his Government of another, as 56% of French people seem to want according to a survey published on Sunday by Ipsos-Sopra Steria. This situation of cohabitation already occurred on three occasions (1986-1988, 1993-1995 and 1997-2002), when the president’s mandate was seven years and not five as it is now.
Although the constitutional reform of the duration of the mandate of the President of the Republic in 2000 had among its objectives that of avoiding new cohabitations, there seems to be a risk this year that it will happen again.
However, the two-round majority electoral system, the level of local implementation of the candidates (the historically important parties such as the Socialist Party or the Republicans continue to have a good local electoral base, as was seen in the last municipal elections and regions) or the recurring low voter turnout in legislative elections should not facilitate the transformation of the success of the parties of Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Mélenchon into a parliamentary majority.
In any case, a very close electoral campaign is predicted. Another thing is that it interests French voters.
This article has been published in ‘The Conversation‘.