2023-06-07 18:01:45
The question is no longer whether the demand for electricity will increase or not, but rather how to meet new needs as quickly as possible. This is the observation made by the Electricity Transmission Network (RTE) in a new report presented on Wednesday June 7, which provides for a much stronger than expected increase in electricity consumption in France.
The network manager estimates that it could reach between 580 and 640 TWh in 2035, compared to 460 TWh in 2022. In its reference scenario, published in October 2021, RTE was counting on 645 TWh of consumption, but only by 2050 The acceleration is very clear, as is the volte-face of the authorities on the subject, if we remember that ten years ago the official discourse insisted on the decrease in electrical needs, which made it possible to justify the planned closure of a third of the nuclear fleet.
Industrial reconquest
But the context has changed with the appearance of new parameters for two years, justifies RTE. The European Union has thus reviewed its climate trajectory. Its objective is no longer to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% between 1990 and 2030, but by 55%, which means going faster in the electrification of uses, in factories, transport or heating modes.
Added to this are new ambitions in terms of industrial relocations, in the name of sovereignty. The three gigafactories of batteries in the North will need, for example, 5 to 10 TW of electricity per year, or the production of one to two nuclear reactors of 900 MW.
Sobriety will not be enough
Admittedly, the levers to lower demand are still there. Efficiency measures would save about 100 TWh per year, and sobriety measures between 40 and 60 TWh per year. But that will not be enough. The additional electricity needs of industry alone are estimated by RTE at between 110 and 160 TWh.
As a result, electricity consumption could increase by more than 10 TWh per year, a ” pace “ Who “has not been reached since the 1980s and highlights the magnitude of the challenge facing the French electricity system”, points out the report.
It will therefore be necessary to quickly find new means of production. Not easy. Because new nuclear reactors will not come into service before 2035 (at best), and future offshore wind farms will only be operational from 2030, provided they are decided now.
Double renewable energy production by 2035
To complete the energy equation, in other words to achieve both decarbonization and industrialization, “we need efficiency, sobriety, the most available nuclear production possible and a lot of additional renewable energies”, summarizes Xavier Piechaczyk, the president of RTE.
Lots of conditions, which might be difficult to fulfill at the same time. This implies in particular bringing the entire fleet of reactors to at least 60 years and increasing nuclear production to 400 TWh (279 TWh in 2022). As for renewable energies, which should produce at least 240 TWh in 2035, twice as much as today, it will be necessary to increase social acceptability, in particular onshore wind power.
End of the world and end of the month
Especially since the French are not ready to shake up their habits. Especially if it costs them dearly, according to the major survey carried out by Ipsos for RTE, in two waves, with 11,000 and 13,000 people to whom 120 questions were asked.
“They are aware of climate change, but the question of purchasing power remains central”, emphasizes Brice Teinturier, director of Ipsos, recalling that for 70% of French people the reduction in gas and electricity consumption was made for financial reasons, only 30% highlighting a civic gesture.
Two untouchable symbols: the car and the individual house
The French also have aspirations that they intend to keep. They don’t want to be forced to drive in a smaller car and limit their trips (68% feel they have already done so). They dream of having bigger accommodation, and above all an individual house, with a garden if possible, which they don’t want to share with anyone.
In short, desires that are the opposite of the radical sobriety advocated by some. “But wanting to impose models is the best way to light wicks”, warns Brice Teinturier. On the side of RTE, the message seems heard. «The French want to keep their way of life. It is up to us to integrate it into our forecasts,” says Xavier Piechaczyk. Obviously, the memory of the movement of “yellow vests” has left traces.
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Consultation on banning new gas boilers
The French government, which plans to ban the installation of new gas boilers, has launched a consultation until July 28 with elected officials and professionals, indicated the Ministry of Energy Transition. This decision is part of the ecological planning launched by the Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne. According to the ministry, however, this would not be “no replacement obligation” and that evolution would be “very progressive”.
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