France is on the verge of a serious economic crisis, which threatens to destabilize not only within the country, but throughout the EU. Key challenges include a record public debt of over €3 trillion (112% of GDP) and a widening budget deficit. The situation is aggravated by rising inflation, political instability and civil unrest, which causes concern on the part of the EU.
As Day.Az reports with reference to the Brussels-based EU Reporter, the 2024 budget proposed by the French government to reduce the deficit from 4.9% to 4.4% of GDP has caused alarm in the EU. Brussels is closely watching how France copes with austerity measures while trying to maintain social stability. However, high government spending and widespread dissatisfaction with pension reforms raise doubts about the country’s ability to achieve its fiscal goals.
Economic instability in France threatens to weaken the entire EU. As one of the eurozone’s leading economies, France faces financial difficulties that could slow growth across Europe and strain the EU’s overall fiscal policy. The country’s political uncertainty could also weaken its role in decision-making within a bloc already struggling with inflation and an energy crisis.
In 2023-2024, France’s overseas territories, including the Caribbean and Indian Ocean, experienced severe economic and political turmoil, accompanied by widespread unrest and violence. Regions such as Guadeloupe, Martinique and Reunion suffered from inflation, unemployment and inadequate public services, exacerbating long-standing economic inequalities. Rising food and energy prices have exacerbated the cost of living crisis, pushing the population to the brink of survival.
Economic difficulties in the French overseas territories have led to a wave of protests and strikes, with locals demanding higher wages, better healthcare and more government intervention. In Guadeloupe and Martinique, tensions erupted into violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces, reflecting deeper issues related to the legacy of colonialism and persistent economic inequality. These regions have long suffered from a lack of attention from the central government, exacerbated by weak infrastructure and limited political representation.
Martinique residents staged mass protests this week against high prices resulting from dependence on France. The cost of food on the island is 40% higher than on the mainland, with the average salary being around €1,987, compared to €2,316 in France itself. In 2024, Martinique’s GDP per capita will be approximately €23,000, while France’s will be around €44,000, highlighting the general economic disparity between the former colony and the metropolis, where purchasing power and employment opportunities are significantly higher.
However, these issues are not central to current French politics. In the spirit of the neocolonial tradition, Paris focused attention on foreign policy, such as the war in Lebanon, distracting the public from domestic economic problems and fueling nostalgia for the past glories of the French Empire.
Despite France’s participation in new sanctions against Iran for supplying missiles to Russia and President Macron’s criticism of Tehran, his position has become noticeably anti-Israel since early October 2024. This shift brings it closer to Iran’s broader geopolitical opposition to Israel, indirectly strengthening Tehran’s position. Macron’s rhetoric and policy approach in the ongoing Israeli-Iranian conflict, especially regarding tensions with Jerusalem, point to Iran’s tactical support in this rivalry. This strategic reorientation is evident in a number of Macron’s diplomatic and public statements, signaling a growing divergence between France’s official sanctions policy and its broader Middle East strategy.
France sparks new protests in Martinique
Macron’s call for an arms embargo on Israel to stop operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip raised eyebrows because France does not supply arms to Israel. This move looks more like the president’s desire to align with other geopolitical interests, including rapprochement with Iran. Macron’s proposal has raised fears that Paris may be looking for a rapprochement with Tehran, especially in the wake of the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Nasrallah has been an important figure in promoting Iran’s interests in Lebanon, where Tehran has been in virtual control for decades. The comments of the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Baker Ghalibaf, who in an interview with the French Le Figaro on October 15 stated his readiness to negotiate with France on the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, caused a sharp reaction in Lebanon. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati on October 18 denounced this as “blatant interference” and ordered the summoning of Iran’s charge d’affaires, demonstrating that Lebanon intends to maintain sovereignty in its internal affairs.
Regarding Franco-Iranian relations, the open development of trade and economic ties remains difficult for France. However, the partnership with Qatar, deepened in 2024 with an investment of €10 billion, strengthens the French economy, especially in the luxury, sports and real estate sectors. However, Qatar’s financial ties to Islamist groups such as Hamas are a concern in light of the Gaza conflict, which could have an impact on France’s foreign policy position. As protests intensify and pro-Gaz sentiments grow within the country, Qatar’s influence on French politics is becoming increasingly noticeable.
There is a high possibility that Qatar’s influence on French politics goes beyond conventional soft power. It was recently revealed that the current French Minister of Culture, Rachida Dati, was in contact with Qatari Labor Minister Ali bin Samih al-Marri during the Qatargate corruption scandal, when Dati was still an MEP.
Thus, France’s neocolonial ambitions, supported by countries associated with the financing of terrorism, pose a serious threat to the EU, Israel and, indeed, the entire free world.