The traffic light is broken. If the Chancellor’s plan sticks, there will be new elections in March. And until then? Scholz actually needs the opposition leader now. But Merz sets clear conditions.
While there is a mixture of relief, frustration and perplexity in the parliamentary group halls of the traffic light parties on Wednesday evening, a few meters away, in the Jakob-Kaiser-Haus, a meeting of the Union leaders is taking place. In the office of the opposition leader and CDU boss Friedrich Merz, General Secretary Carsten Linnemann, Parliamentary Managing Director Thorsten Frei, CSU regional group leader Alexander Dobrindt and Frei’s counterpart for the CSU, Alexander Hoffmann, met at short notice for a discussion. CSU Prime Minister Markus Söder joined us from Bavaria.
People are happy about the failed federal government and think about what that actually means for themselves. The CDU and CSU have been calling for a traffic light break for almost a year. So far, the question of “And then?” nicely postponed. “We’ll see that then” or “We’re ready,” was the response when asked. Nothing concrete. Now the traffic light has burst – and it’s the Union’s turn. So what does Merz make of it?
After the expulsion of Christian Lindner and the departure of the FDP, Scholz lacks a majority in the Bundestag. The FDP ministries are occupied by SPD people and the Greens, but the red-green minority government lacks a parliamentary majority for legislative proposals. If the Chancellor does not ask the vote of confidence until January, the country could face a standstill for months. And what happens until then?
The FDP emphasizes that they will see what decisions are necessary, but Scholz cannot count on their support. So the Union MPs are needed. If Scholz managed to pass certain laws together with the CDU/CSU, the government would still be able to act. At least the CDU had already expressed willingness to do this in advance. But CDU leader Merz has made it abundantly clear since Wednesday evening that he does not want to play the stopgap for the FDP. So how realistic is a collaboration between Scholz and Merz really?
The Greens have few illusions that they can still make a big splash. Habeck told the press at lunchtime that he does not expect that the FDP and the Union will now say in “some kind of big side agreement: We will help the remaining red-green government over the next few months.” That won’t happen, that’s presumptuous.
It remains to be seen whether it will be possible to achieve something “at certain points where there are overlapping interests”. But Habeck doesn’t sound optimistic about the big chunks, not even about the supplementary budget for 2024, i.e. the necessary additions for this year. “We have to see,” he says, whether there is a “common understanding” with the Union. And that would be a significantly smaller problem compared to the actual budget for 2025.
But Habeck doesn’t sound resigned. And that is due to one circumstance: “There is no budget freeze,” he says. And in his opinion, the new finance minister will not impose any, as Lindner has already done. This means: Everything that has already been decided can continue to be paid for. Statutory benefits would of course be provided. The only problem: anything new requires a majority in the Bundestag.
On Thursday morning, the Union MPs will meet for a special session. The atmosphere is exuberant, the failure of others is also celebrated here. “The traffic light is over,” says Friedrich Merz, and there is loud applause in the
He will now ask the Chancellor to ask the vote of confidence in the next week of the meeting at the latest.
The message behind it is clear: If Scholz needs us, we determine the conditions.
Interview between Time.news Editor and Political Expert on the Current German Government Situation
Time.news Editor: Welcome, and thank you for joining us today! With the current turbulence in the German government, the traffic light coalition faces significant challenges. We know that Chancellor Scholz is grappling with a lack of parliamentary majority after the departure of the FDP. What are your initial thoughts on this situation?
Political Expert: Thank you for having me! It’s indeed a precarious moment for Chancellor Scholz and the entire political landscape. The traffic light coalition, which comprises the SPD, Greens, and the FDP, has effectively collapsed, leaving the government in a critical position. There’s a mixture of uncertainty and potential relief within the opposition, particularly the CDU/CSU, as they have long called for a reevaluation of the coalition.
Time.news Editor: Speaking of the CDU/CSU, Friedrich Merz has emerged as a key figure in this scenario. What can we expect from him and the opposition in the lead-up to potential elections in March?
Political Expert: Merz is leveraging the situation to assert the CDU’s role in shaping the next phase of governance. His meetings with party leaders indicate a strategic approach—he’s looking to impose conditions for cooperation with Scholz. While he doesn’t want his party to be seen as a mere stopgap for the FDP, he also recognizes the precariousness of a minority government. His challenge will be to balance assertive opposition while appearing as a viable alternative.
Time.news Editor: You mentioned that the CDU is poised to take a more active role, but what about the other parties, particularly the Greens? How might they respond to this political impasse?
Political Expert: The Greens seem to have tempered expectations significantly. Robert Habeck has already expressed skepticism about the possibility of an agreement with the Union. Their main concern is that pragmatic cooperation won’t materialize, primarily because the CDU/CSU will likely prioritize their position over aiding a minority government. The Greens are navigating a tough path, as they will have to work within a framework that may not align with their values or legislative goals.
Time.news Editor: It appears that the call for new elections is not simply a need for change, but also a question of practical governance. If Scholz chooses not to call for a vote of confidence until January, what implications does that hold for the immediate future?
Political Expert: Delaying a vote of confidence could lead to a prolonged period of legislative standstill, which would be detrimental, especially in addressing pressing policy issues. Given that many experts believe the situation could lead to serious governance challenges, this delay could frustrate both parties and the public. Legislative paralysis could exacerbate existing crises—be it economic, social, or environmental.
Time.news Editor: With the political landscape in constant flux, how do you see the relationship dynamics evolving between Scholz and Merz? Is there potential for collaboration, or will we remain in this deadlock?
Political Expert: There’s certainly a complex interplay between necessity and political strategy here. While Scholz needs Merz’s support to pass essential legislation, Merz has set strict conditions that might make collaboration difficult. Any potential alliance would depend on whether both leaders can identify overlapping interests that are strong enough to overcome their disparate political objectives. It’s a delicate balance, and the next few months will be telling.
Time.news Editor: Thank you for your insights. It sounds like we should brace ourselves for a turbulent period in German politics as these dynamics play out. We’ll continue to monitor the situation closely.
Political Expert: Absolutely! The political environment in Germany is fluid, and it promises to be an intriguing few months ahead. Thank you for the conversation!