The empty shots of Merkel’s heir: only three points more than the Greens. And challenger Scholz goes back to 19%. Very open outcome while there are just over 40 days left to vote
FROM OUR CORRESPONENT
BERLIN As a metaphor for the launch of his new and decisive election tour, it was not exactly the most appropriate. Determined to offer a more aggressive and fighting version of himself, Armin Laschet, the Cdu-Csu candidate for the Chancellery, chose a ring where, wearing boxing gloves, he tried to unleash a few hooks against a complacent sparring partner. Unfortunately for the man who aspires to succeed Angela Merkel, however, it is he who finds himself on the ropes.
There are just over 40 days left to vote and the electoral campaign makes a new twist, confirming that the outcome remains very open. Leading with 30% of voting intentions and a very large margin over Green and Social Democratic opponents a month ago, the Conservative front has a problem. The latest survey by Rtl it gives the CDU-Csu a meager 23%, with the Greens stable at 20% and the SPD in strong growth with 19%, a leap of three points. Also in the Poll of Polls of the online newspaper Politico, which makes a weighted average of all the polls, the Union is no better: it has dropped by 4 points in three weeks, stopping at 25% while the Greens are at 19% and the Social Democrats at 18%, after having remained nailed to the 15%.
Almost all opinions are unanimous: the crisis of the CDU-CSU is to be attributed in the first place to the modesty of its candidate. “What Laschet has offered since his investiture has been more a parody of an election campaign, than something that can be taken seriously”, he ruled The mirror. Nor does a better judgment come from a conservative newspaper like the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, according to which the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia “gives the impression that he would gladly cancel the campaign while waiting for the voters to give the CDU-Csu a majority in spite of everything”.
The gaffes and errors weigh on Laschet committed immediately after the July floods, which sowed death and destruction in his Land, the most populous in Germany, when he was caught by the televisions in a loud laugh, behind the President of the Republic who uttered words of condolence for the victims. His emergency management is also under fire, which has dismantled one of his favorite slogans: if you govern North Rhine-Westphalia well, you can govern Germany. Certainly the strength of the CDU-CSU should make a dam and allow the conservative front to finish in the lead anyway. But the weakness shown so far by the candidate even feeds the rumors of those who would like to replace him in the running with the much more combative Bavarian premier, Markus Söder.
The real novelty, however, is the unexpected recovery of the Social Democrats, largely due to the drag effect of their candidate, Finance Minister, Olaf Scholz. Concrete, devoid of charisma enough to resemble Angela Merkel, with whom he loves and gets along in the Great Coalition, Scholz has the highest level of personal approval: 44% of Germans would like him chancellor, against 21 % which is expressed for Laschet and 16% for Baerbock green.
But in Germany there is no vote for the chancellor, but for parties. And so far the SPD has sailed very badly, in the low tide of 15%. But now something is changing and for the first time Scholz’s credibility and popularity, thanks to the mistakes of his opponents, seem to be transferred to the party. In fact, the entire social democratic campaign has become a one man show: “My message to the Germans is this – he said in a recent interview – if you want me as chancellor you have to vote for the SPD”. According to the Berlin political scientist Wolfgang Schröder, «the Germans like Scholz because he is the reliable technocrat, who is based on facts and knows how to manage crises».
Unlike Laschet and Annalena Baerboch, entangled in a web of accusations and gaffes ranging from plagiarism to having embellished his resume, Scholz was an example of professionalism and timing: present in the places of the natural catastrophe to promise commitment and government funds for reconstruction, authoritative on the international scene as mediator in the agreement for the introduction of a minimum tax on multinationals. And to those who ask him why you no longer show emotion, Scholz replies: “I want to become chancellor, not circus director.” That he succeeds is all to be demonstrated.
August 14, 2021 (change August 14, 2021 | 22:32)
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