2024-03-23 16:31:00
World map (pexels photo) A decline in global birth rates is expected to bring about a demographic revolution over the next 25 years, with fateful consequences for the global economy. By 2050, about 75% of the world’s countries are expected to fall below the population’s replacement fertility rate of 2.1 babies per woman, according to a study published Wednesday in the medical journal The Lancet.
That would leave 49 countries – mostly in low-income areas of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia – responsible for the majority of new births. “Future trends in fertility and birth rates will bring about changes in the composition of the world’s population, will lead to changes in international relations and the geopolitical environment, and will highlight new challenges in global migration and aid networks,” wrote the authors of the report.
By 2100, only six countries are expected to have birth rates that replace the population: the African countries of Chad, Nigeria and Congo, the Pacific islands of Samoa and Tonga, and Tajikistan in Central Asia. This changing demographic landscape will have “profound” social, economic, environmental and geopolitical impacts, the report’s authors said.
In particular, the shrinking workforce in advanced economies will require significant political and fiscal intervention, even as advances in technology provide some support. “As the labor force declines, the overall size of the economy tends to decline even if output per worker remains the same. In the absence of liberal immigration policies, these countries will face many challenges,” Dr. Christopher Murray, lead author of the report and director of the institute, told CNBC. for health measures and assessment.
“Artificial intelligence and robotics may reduce the economic impact of a declining workforce, but some sectors such as housing will continue to be heavily impacted,” he added. The report, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, did not present a figure on the specific economic impact of the demographic changes.
However, he highlighted a difference between high-income countries, where birth rates are steadily declining, and low-income countries, where they continue to rise. From 1950 to 2021, the global total fertility rate (TFR) – or the average number of babies born per woman – more than halved, from 4.84 to 2.23, as many countries got richer and women gave birth to fewer babies.
This trend has been influenced by social changes, such as an increase in women’s participation in the workforce, and political measures including China’s one-child policy. From 2050 to 2100, the global total fertility rate is set to drop further from 1.83 to 1.59. The replacement rate – or the number of children a couple would need to replace themselves – is 2.1 in most developed countries.
It comes even as the world’s population is expected to grow from 8 billion today to 9.7 billion by 2050, before peaking at about 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s, according to the United Nations. Already, many advanced economies have fertility rates well below By mid-century, this category should include major economies China and India, with South Korea’s birth rate ranking as the lowest in the world at 0.82
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Meanwhile, low-income countries are expected to see their share of new births nearly double from 18 percent in 2021 to 35 percent by 2100. By the turn of the century, sub-Saharan Africa will account for half of all new births, according to the report. Murray said it could Put poorer countries in a “stronger position” to negotiate more ethical and fairer migration policies—leverage that could become important as countries grow and are exposed to the effects of climate change.
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