2024-04-25 07:29:06
Investor expectations for the future of the global economy over the next 12 months have improved significantly. For the first time since December 2021, there were more optimists, that is, those who expect growth to increase, than pessimists, by 11 percent. Kommersant writes about this with reference to an April survey of portfolio managers from Bank of America (BofA), Day.Az reports with reference to Lenta.ru.
The survey included 260 managers who manage $719 billion in assets. First of all, their positive attitude is associated with the American economy.
The final fourth-quarter growth estimate showed U.S. GDP rose 3.4 percent, reducing the risks of a recession. Such strong economic data is leading some analysts to speculate that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates at all this year, given growth at current levels.
Optimism is not hampered even by the increase in inflation and geopolitical risks noted by managers. The poll was conducted before Iran struck Israel, so the May poll may show a decline.
Against the backdrop of a change in sentiment, investors are increasingly shifting funds from cash to shares. Funds mainly go to the markets of developed countries, with Europe becoming the leader in investments for the first time in more than two years. The prospects for the European economy are increasingly assessed as positive, and the Eurozone business activity index in March exceeded 50 points for the first time since May last year.
This situation could lead to an increase in oil prices, which will support the Russian market. However, difficulties in the Chinese economy may offset this effect because Russia has increased its dependence on China in recent years.
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