Gold futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives are projected to trade between US$4,100 and US$4,300 per troy ounce this week. The precious metal remains highly sensitive to upcoming United States economic data and shifting monetary policy expectations, according to market analysts.
Precious metals saw movement in early Asian trade on September 22, even as persistent expectations of higher United States interest rates for longer continued to limit broader bullion gains. Investors monitored central bank commentary for clues on future policy moves. COMEX gold rose 0.17% to $4,391.30 per ounce on September 22, after trading between $4,382 and $4,414.10 an ounce as tracked in commodity market reports. Spot gold was little changed at $4,344.29 an ounce, while US gold futures held steady at $4,381.80 an ounce.
Federal Reserve May Raise Rates to Curb Inflation
Bullion has faced downward pressure from expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep borrowing costs elevated. The central bank raised its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points and signaled that further increases might be necessary to bring inflation under control.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted that the US central bank may need to raise rates further as strong demand and broader commodity price shocks add to inflationary pressures. Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, pointed to energy markets as a key variable for monetary policy.
Chinese Golden Week Holiday Subdues Asian Demand
SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes noted that options pricing indicated the market was braced for a move of about 2.5% on either side of current price levels.
Asian demand is also likely to remain subdued in the early part of this week, with China still away for Golden Week until Oct 7,
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management
Prithviraj Kothari, managing director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions and president of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, reported that spot gold closed the prior week at $4,378 an ounce with silver gaining about 2.7%. Kothari stated that gold was holding a technical range of $4,250 to $4,450 an ounce, while silver remained between $62.50 and $67.50 an ounce.
Domestic Impact on Indian Bullion and Currency Factors
In India, gold futures declined on September 21, with MCX October gold falling ₹832, or 0.54%, to settle at ₹1.53 lakh per 10 grams. That contract had previously gained ₹1,597, or 1.04%, the preceding week. Analysts cited by PTI reporting indicated that a stronger US dollar and renewed rate-hike concerns weighed on domestic prices while retail buyers remained cautious.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.com, emphasized that the rupee functions as a critical variable for Indian bullion pricing. While a weaker currency can cushion domestic buyers against international price declines, it also risks compounding domestic inflationary pressures. Recent sessions have featured pronounced volatility, with gold swinging between ₹1.50 lakh and ₹1.55 lakh per 10 grams and silver trading near the ₹2.40 lakh per kilogram threshold.