Hamas struggles to rebuild after Sinwar’s death: this is how the group reorganized itself in Gaza

2024-10-25 18:36:00

If history serves any purpose, it is to demonstrate it The death of a leader does not mean the end of an idea. And less so in the Middle East. The Palestinian group wanted to claim the same thing. Hamas after the murder of his boss Yahya Sinwar last October 16th. “His death will not end the resistence nor with the cause,” he defended in a statement confirming the loss. But, even if events since the birth of the movement in the 1980s confirm it, Hamas is now experiencing an exceptionally low moment. In July, an attack attributed to Israel killed the its political leader, Ismail Haniya, in Tehran and, less than three months later, Sinwar, who had replaced Haniya, died. More than a year of war in the Gaza Strip has devastated thousands of fighters, but also hundreds of young people people continue joining their ranks moved by anger and pain in one of the deadliest conflicts of recent decades. For now they operate without a clear leader, waiting to discover Hamas’s future.

Hamas is organized in such a way that the movement can survive superior personalities. Throughout history, the group has overcome the assassinations of its leaders to the point of attacking the major military and intelligence power that it was. Israel. The October 7, 2023 massacre resulted in the deaths of nearly 1,150 Israelis and the kidnapping of 250 citizens, around a hundred of whom remain prisoners in Gaza. Jewish authorities then pointed to Sinwar, the Hamas leader in the enclave, as the leader convulsive brainand considered him “a walking dead” for more than a year. Throughout this time, Sinwar was hidden and away from any electronic devices that would allow the Israelis to track him. For this reason the armed movement was forced to learn how to do it operate independently in the field of Sinwar.

In recent months the Gaza militant organization has operated in a decentralized. Las guerrilla techniques adopted by Hamas militants condemned the Israeli army to remain in the Strip more than a year after the start of the military offensive. Furthermore, the cruelty of the attacks and the widespread devastation, combined with the massive civilian casualties, have motivated many young people – who now have nothing left to lose – to join the ranks of the resistance movement. Israel killed the leader abroad and the leader in Gaza who headed the operation ceasefire negotiations. Far from capitalizing on Sinwar’s loss in the dialogue, PM Benjamin Netanyahu seems intent on continuing with the military offensive that aims to empty northern Gaza, with very serious consequences for the civilian population.

Doha Committee

In addition to discouraging its members, Sinwar’s death, with weapon in hand and fighting until his last breath, can motivate the militiamen of Hamas to continue the battle. “Sinwar’s death will not affect the level of fighting in Gaza,” he says Eye of the Middle East Amer al SabailehJordanian political analyst and professor of political science. “Maybe the resistance will move to a state of disorganized decentralizationand this may be difficult for the Israelis to control,” he adds. For most, the question is who will do it make decisions now to Hamas and, then, to Gaza. At the moment, according to several sources in the group, everyone is going through a phase of a Government committee based in Doha. Consisting of five memberswas formed in August following Haniya’s assassination to facilitate decision-making given the difficulty of communicating with Sinwar in Gaza before his death.

The steering committee, whose members all reside in Qatar, is composed of representatives from the two Palestinian territories and the diaspora, namely, Jalil al Haya in Gaza, Zaher Jabarin for the West Bank e Jaled Meshaal for Palestinians abroad. Also includes the head of the Hamas Shura Advisory Council, Mohammed Darwishand the secretary of the political office, who is never identified for security reasons. Hamas plans in March internal elections and that’s probably when they will choose Sinwar’s replacement. Until then, the committee will make strategic political and military decisions during the war and probably in the future.

Possible candidates

For now, a series of names are being evaluated as possible candidates. One of the ones that rings loudest is that of Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed Sinwar. The younger brother is an important commander of the Al Qasam Brigadesthe armed wing of Hamas, which could take over if it were still alive. But some experts say difficulties in communicating with Sinwar in recent months have taught senior Hamas officials a lesson that would make them lean towards a leader who is outside Gaza. AS Jaled Meshaalthe main representative of the group in the context of the Palestinian exodus and the strongest figure of the group abroad after the murders of Haniya and the vice-president of the political office, Saleh Al Arourilast January in Beirut. He currently occupies one of these same vice-presidencies.

Others look towards Jalil al HayaSinwar’s deputy and resident in Qatar. He is the current leader of the Hamas delegation in the ceasefire talks between the group and Israel and has deep knowledge, connection and understanding of the situation in Gaza. After Sinwar’s death, Al Hague insisted that Hamas not return any of the hostages “before the end of the aggression on Gaza and the withdrawal from Gaza”, thus demonstrating that the group’s position has not changed. Al Haya is considered close to Iran, but less intransigent than Sinwar and closer to Haniya. Meshaal is also seen as a more moderate figurebut closer to Türkiye and Qatar than to Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. Sinwar, by contrast, was seen as a hardliner with close ties to the armed wing of Hamas. That may have been his sentence, since that’s how he died, fighting until his last breath.

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