The already fragile global food system is facing a new threat as escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupt a critical shipping lane. Since February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy and fertilizer trade, has seen passage largely halted following joint military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran and the subsequent response from Tehran. The disruption is raising concerns about potential food price shocks, particularly impacting farmers and consumers reliant on synthetic fertilizers.
The crisis stems from the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in the recent strikes, triggering retaliatory missile and drone attacks by Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has effectively warned vessels against passage through the strait, a move that has severely curtailed shipping traffic. This isn’t simply an energy issue. between a quarter and a third of the world’s raw materials needed for fertilizer production transit the Strait of Hormuz, alongside roughly a fifth of all seaborne crude oil and gas, according to reports.
The immediate impact is being felt in the supply of key fertilizer components like ammonia and nitrogen. Roughly half of all global food production relies on synthetic nitrogen, meaning any disruption to its supply chain has the potential to significantly reduce crop yields and drive up prices for staples like bread, pasta, and potatoes, as well as increasing costs for animal feed. The situation is particularly concerning as farmers in the UK, Europe, and North America are beginning their spring planting season, and typically secure fertilizer supplies for the coming year at this time.
A Critical Chokepoint: The Strait of Hormuz and Fertilizer Supply
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is one of the world’s most strategically important shipping lanes. Its closure, even temporarily, has cascading effects. Beyond fertilizer, the strait is a key route for sulphur, a crucial ingredient in fertilizer production, and various other metals and industrial chemicals. Chris Lawson of CRU Group estimates that the Middle East accounts for approximately 45% of global sulphur trade. The current restrictions are reminiscent of the price surges experienced in early 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but analysts suggest the current situation could be even more severe and far-reaching if the disruption persists.
Rising Prices and Regional Impacts
Fertilizer prices are already responding to the instability. Egyptian urea prices, a key benchmark, have jumped by more than 25% in the last week, reaching $625 (£467) per metric tonne, up from $484-$490, according to CRU Group. This increase is compounded by disruptions to fossil gas supplies in the Gulf, with Qatar closing its largest facility following a drone attack. Fossil gas represents between 60% and 80% of the production cost of nitrogen fertilizer, making energy prices a critical factor.
Iran itself is a significant player in the fertilizer market, ranking as the fourth-largest global exporter of urea, after Russia, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. The ability to manufacture fertilizer is directly impacted by the availability of raw materials and the escalating cost of energy. Tom Bradshaw, president of the National Farmers’ Union, noted that farmers are already experiencing price volatility, though the full medium-term impact on the UK remains uncertain. “We are seeing immediate price volatility but at this stage, It’s too early to say how the UK may be impacted in the medium term,” he said.
A Burden on Farmers, a Threat to Food Security
The timing of this crisis is particularly challenging for farmers. While many producers have sufficient fertilizer for the current year, they typically commence securing supplies for the following year around this time. The UK, for example, meets approximately 40% of its nitrogen fertilizer needs domestically, relying on imports for the remainder. Any reduction in fertilizer availability will inevitably lead to lower crop yields, translating to higher food prices for consumers. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks soared by 16.5% in the year to November 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara, the world’s second-largest fertilizer producer, emphasized the financial strain on farmers. “Farmers were already in a challenging situation before this and were struggling with narrow margins,” he stated, calling on governments to provide increased support to food producers. “Input prices are increasing but at the same time there hasn’t been much impact to crop prices, so we are putting a very big burden on the shoulders of the farmers now, unless there is a step up in supporting farmers in this challenging time.”
Recent reports indicate that a container ship was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, resulting in a fire, according to UK maritime trade operations. This incident follows other attacks in the region, with at least two crew members having lost their lives. The ongoing instability underscores the vulnerability of this critical trade route.
Looking Ahead
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly fluid. The extent of the disruption to fertilizer supplies, and the resulting impact on global food prices, will depend on the duration of the current restrictions and any further escalation of the conflict. CRU Group analysts suggest that the implications of the Middle East conflict could be “much more severe and wide ranging” than those seen in 2022 if the strait remains restricted for more than two weeks. The next key development to watch will be any diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and restore safe passage through the waterway.
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