2023-12-19 14:02:06
The negotiations continue, again and again. The joint committee, between senators and deputies, has been trying to find an agreement on the immigration bill since Monday afternoon. And the white smoke is not yet in sight.
But if an agreement was finally obtained, the story would not be over, because the two chambers would still have to vote on this same text to definitively ratify it. If this seems like a formality in the Senate, it would be more sporty in the Assembly. Who could vote for, who could vote against? It’s still uncertain, but here is our score.
Left
Let’s start with the simplest: there is almost no chance that one of the four left-wing groups will even call for abstaining on a text coming out of the joint committee. They would all vote against, and even isolated abstentions seem unlikely. If they are all there, that’s already 151 votes in the against column. The Socialists have also already announced the filing of a motion for prior rejection.
Horizon
For the 30 deputies and representatives of Edouard Philippe’s party group it is also quite simple, the vote seems certain.
The Republicans
An agreement in CMP would clearly mean that LR has won its case on many points. The most likely is therefore that the vast majority of the group, which includes 62 deputies, approves the bill. However, it seems unlikely that everyone will vote for it. As during the pension reform, it is a small group around the deputy for Lot, Aurélien Pradié, uncompromising with the Macronists, who could make a different voice heard.
How many could be missing? If the balance of power is the same in the group as during the election of the president of the group, Olivier Marleix, there are 20 elected officials who are on this line. Around twenty LRs had also voted for the motion of censure of Charles de Courson (Liot) last March. This would be a real threat to the government. If there are only five or ten, it will not necessarily be decisive. It also remains to be seen whether the LR deputies who break ranks will vote outright against or will only move towards an abstention, which would make the government’s task a little less difficult.
Renaissance
For a week, the most diverse estimates have been circulating on the number of Macronist deputies who could report sick, abstain or outright vote against a possible text resulting from the CMP. On Monday, estimates of possible slingers were much lower than last week. Maybe four or five against, a handful of abstentions, probably a few absent. But at least 140 or 150 of the 170 in the group are for it.
From the start, the left has affirmed that what we call the “left wing” of the majority will end up swallowing the snake of a harsh text, written in very large co-production with the senatorial right. Sylvain Maillard, the president of the group, announced that he was considering exclusions for those who voted against. What motivates the last holdouts to fall into line? Or heat up the opponents?
Democratic movement
For a long time, observers believed that the MoDem group (51 members), in the name of its Christian democratic tradition, could as a whole overrule the majority on a text where the influence of the senatorial right would be too strong. But the question of the cohesion of the majority comes into play: as for the left wing of Renaissance, on Monday, there would only be a few recalcitrants. They, moreover, made no secret of their hope that the CMP would not be conclusive to avoid having to vote. The question of reducing land rights in particular, which would no longer be automatic, could cause some votes to waver. The group’s decision does not appear to have been confirmed; the group’s weekly press briefing was even canceled on Tuesday morning.
National gathering
The RN voted last week for the preliminary rejection motion but is not part of the negotiations in CMP, where there is only one representative out of 14 members. On paper, the 88 RN deputies should therefore vote against the text resulting from the CMP. “We will abstain or we will vote against”, indicated this Tuesday on France Inter the president of the RN, Jordan Bardella. It excludes a favorable vote, unless “removal of measures aimed at facilitating the regularization of illegal immigrants”.
A simple abstention from the RN can pass the text, without mentioning of course a vote in favor. In this case, the RN would pass a harsh text and could sow discord among the majority: having had a text on immigration adopted thanks to the RN could be a shock for many.
Liberties, independents, overseas and territories (Liot)
The small diverse left and diverse right group, which has 21 members, almost saved the government last Monday during the vote on the motion for preliminary rejection, because it voted almost entirely against (19 against, one abstention, one absent). But the group says above all that they voted to have a debate. This does not at all mean that the government could necessarily count on these votes on the text itself. The seven elected officials from the left could be missed in the government, and perhaps beyond. But here too, the group canceled its press briefing this Tuesday morning, a sign of the pressure.
Assessment (with a ladle)
If the entire left and the RN vote against, that makes 239 against. With around ten LR and Liot, the bar rises to around 260. The Macronists have a total of 251 seats, but we will have to count on 20 to 30 abstentions in total, perhaps a few votes against. In this case, at least forty LRs will be needed for the government to have any hope of winning the vote. Each vote against, at LR and in the majority, will therefore be decisive.
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