Traffic light off
Merz to Scholz: Immediate question of trust, otherwise nothing will work
Updated on November 7, 2024Reading time: 4 min.
The remaining term of Olaf Scholz’s minority government is unclear. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz has different ideas than the Chancellor – and is not alone.
The traffic light has failed, a new election is coming up in Germany - but when? If the opposition, the German economy and the European partners have their way, a new Bundestag will be elected as quickly as possible and ideally in January. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), on the other hand, has different ideas about the timing: He wants to ask the Bundestag for a vote of confidence on January 15th and thus bring about an early election at the end of March. Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has a key role in this journey and says: “I am ready to make this decision.”
It is known that the relationship between Chancellor Scholz and Friedrich Merz, the Union’s candidate for chancellor, is tense. Nevertheless, Scholz offered the CDU/CSU cooperation immediately after Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) was kicked out of the government.
But Scholz is sticking to his schedule. The SPD politician said he would do what was necessary for the country. “Citizens will soon have the opportunity to decide again how things should proceed.” Cooperation with the Union is about solutions to strengthen the economy and defense - about questions “that are crucial for our country to work together constructively: to quickly strengthen our economy and our defense.”
Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens) would welcome cooperation with the Union. “I would be happy about it and of course I am always ready to find the way to do this,” said Habeck.
After the traffic light coalition broke up, the Federal President spoke to the conscience of the actors. “It is not the time for tactics and skirmishes,” he said, also with a view to the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the USA. “It is the time for reason and responsibility.”
As Federal President, he will have to decide on the dissolution of the Bundestag. “But our country needs stable majorities and a government capable of acting. That will be my test,” said Steinmeier.
If the Chancellor asks for a vote of confidence and does not get a majority, he will ask the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag. According to Article 68 of the Basic Law, the President has a maximum of 21 days to do this. However, he is not obliged to do so. If he does, an election must be made within 60 days.
Business representatives are also pushing for a quick new election. “Every additional day with this federal government is a lost day,” said the President of the BGA foreign trade association, Dirk Jandura. The Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), the Association of the Chemical Industry (VCI) and the Association of the Electrical and Digital Industry (ZVEI) also called for a quick new election.
EU heads of government for quick elections in Germany
The Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo is hoping for a quick new election in Germany. A strong German government is needed in Europe, said Orpo on the sidelines of a summit of the European Political Community (EPG) in the Hungarian capital Budapest. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, his Swedish colleague Ulf Kristersson and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen agreed.
Scholz originally wanted to take part in the EPG summit. Because of the domestic political situation, he didn’t want to travel until the evening. A meeting of the heads of state and government of the EU states will then begin there. The European Political Community also includes countries such as Ukraine, Great Britain and Turkey.
Interview between Time.News Editor and Political Expert
Time.News Editor: Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to this special segment. Today, we have the privilege of speaking with Dr. Clara Müller, a political analyst and expert in German governance. Dr. Müller, thank you for joining us.
Dr. Clara Müller: Thank you for having me! I’m excited to discuss the current political climate in Germany.
Editor: It’s shaping up to be quite tumultuous! To kick things off, we’ve seen significant tension between Chancellor Olaf Scholz and opposition leader Friedrich Merz. Can you elaborate on the implications of their standoff for the upcoming elections?
Dr. Müller: Absolutely. The strained relationship between Scholz and Merz is at the heart of the current political crisis. With Scholz leading a minority government, he faces increasing pressure not just from the opposition but also from economic stakeholders and European partners who are calling for a more urgent resolution. The discord complicates the situation as the German electorate looks for stability.
Editor: Speaking of stability, there’s talk of a vote of confidence scheduled for January 15th. How does this play into Chancellor Scholz’s strategy, and what could happen if he loses that vote?
Dr. Müller: If Scholz asks the Bundestag for a vote of confidence and fails to secure a majority, he would effectively trigger a chain reaction. As outlined in Article 68 of the Basic Law, he can request the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag, resulting in new elections within 60 days. This is what Scholz is trying to avoid. He seems to believe that a successful vote can bolster his position and possibly extend the life of his government.
Editor: It appears that the Federal President, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, holds a pivotal role in this scenario. What do you think about his comments advocating for reason and responsibility over tactical skirmishes?
Dr. Müller: Steinmeier’s statements reflect a desire for a more collaborative political environment, something that seems to be lacking at the moment. By emphasizing the need for stable majorities and functional governance, he is implicitly urging all parties to consider the greater good of the country over party politics. His influence may be a stabilizing factor as we approach these critical decisions.
Editor: There are also indications of a willingness to cooperate between factions, particularly the Greens and the opposition. Do you see a potential bridge being built there?
Dr. Müller: It’s certainly a possibility. Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck expressed a readiness to cooperate with Merz’s CDU/CSU if it leads to constructive outcomes, particularly in strengthening the economy and national defense. This kind of bipartisan dialogue could ease tensions and contribute to a more stable government structure, which citizens are desperately seeking.
Editor: Shifting focus to the economic aspect—the pressure from business leaders for a quick election is mounting. What ramifications could an extended leadership crisis have on Germany’s economy?
Dr. Müller: The current instability is already creating concern among business leaders, as they fear that prolonged uncertainty will hinder investment and economic recovery. Dirk Jandura from the BGA has noted that every day without stable governance translates to lost opportunities for economic growth. If new elections are delayed further, we could see a fall in consumer confidence and a slowdown in critical reforms.
Editor: In essence, we’re at a crossroads. Given everything we’ve discussed, what do you predict will happen next in this political saga?
Dr. Müller: I foresee that Scholz will attempt to navigate the vote of confidence with the hope of rallying support behind a clear agenda for stability, especially in areas like economic recovery and defense. However, if that fails, we may be looking at elections sooner than later, which could potentially reshape the political landscape significantly.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Müller, for your insights. It’s evident that the coming months are crucial for Germany, and your expertise helps to illuminate the complexities at play.
Dr. Müller: Thank you for having me! I look forward to seeing how this unfolds.
Editor: And thank you to our viewers for tuning in. Stay informed with us as we follow the developments in German politics closely.