Cancer Expects a significant change from the weather in the second half of the year. Due to heavy rains, rubber tapping in the state came to a standstill for three weeks, which upset the calculations of the farmers. Large plantations and small farmers are hoping that clear weather in the new year will provide an opportunity to increase production.
Producers are of the conclusion that rubber cutting can be raised in the days ahead as compared to the months of June-July. Sheet inflows in key markets were marginal due to reduced reserves in the agricultural sector. In the new situation, the stock release is likely to move from many quarters in line with the rise in production. Meanwhile, those who want to unload goods can also turn to the market in view of the demand.
Considering the huge volatility in the international rubber market, Indian industrialists are stocking the commodity cautiously. A fall in rubber holiday prices in the Japanese, Singapore and Chinese markets had an impact on sheet prices in Bangkok, causing gloom in rubber-producing countries. There was no significant buying interest from Chinese industrialists even as the sheet price of Grade 4 in Bangkok fell by Rs 644 per quintal in a week. It is estimated that the demand from Beijing has not increased compared to July as the decline in crude oil prices has sapped the strength of Asian rubber.
Due to heavy rains in the northeastern states, rubber production did not meet the expectations of the region. As the monsoons intensified, the workers were forced to stay away from the plantations. Turning to Kerala, there is a possibility of progress in rubber production in the coming months. Small farmers and large plantations will be eager to maximize their harvest in the period up to December, which will provide an opportunity for gains. It is assumed by the market circles that industrialists will be active in the field if they see a revival in production. Currently fourth grade rubber is moving in the range of 165-170 kg. The market may break out of this range if price movements in overseas holiday trade further influence Indian rubber in the second half of August.
Pepper market with hope
The international pepper market is highly anticipated. On the one hand, exporting countries are trying to get hold of chillies as stockpiling moves for the Christmas-New Year period have progressed. The United States and European countries have been collecting only essential commodities from the international market for several months.
Many countries are running low on pepper as high inflation and interest rate hikes have kept buyers away from the scene. America also turned its attention to the international market as large powder units in Europe started stockpiling. The arrival of Brazilian exporters by offering goods at half the price of Indian pepper attracted buyers.
Meanwhile, Chinese buyers shunned Vietnam and Cambodian chillies and turned to Brazil, pushing up their prices from $3,000 to $3,500-$3,700 a tonne. A clear picture is yet to emerge as to whether the secret behind Brazil’s price hike in preparation for harvest is due to reduced production, but Indonesia raised its quotation rate from $3,700 to $4,125.
Meanwhile, other producing countries were not ready for any significant change in chilli prices in the last few days. Malaysia is steady at $5900 and Vietnam at $4000. Meanwhile, the Sri Lankan lobby moved to raise the Indian price, and to attract North Indian importers, they suddenly raised the price of chillies from $5050 to $5300, but the Indian market did not go along with the estimates of the resellers in Colombo.
In Kochi, garbled pepper has been steady at Rs 51,500 for over two weeks. Meanwhile, exchange rate fluctuations created slight fluctuations in the international price of Malabar chilli, which settled at $6,475 per tonne due to lack of foreign orders.
The agriculture department is yet to release the figures on the damage to the pepper plants due to the monsoon rains. Only when the figures are available on whether the heavy rains at the beginning of the month have hurt the next season’s production will be more clear about the market’s surge in the September-October period.
Can the lion save the coconut?
Producers are hoping that the coconut product market will wake up from the doldrums with the arrival of the lion. Since the beginning of the year, our farmers can survive in the face of soaring inflation only if the festival demand provides an opportunity to the rescue of farmers who have sold their produce at low prices, calculating that the rates will rise today and tomorrow.
Copra is exchanging at Rs 8100-8250 per quintal in South Indian markets. Kerala should love coconut oil more during Ona if copra is to be raised to the range of 8400-8700 in Ona demand. The lack of sincerity in procurement by government agencies has caused coconut farmers to witness the decline in prices.
English summary: Commodity Markets Review August 16