If the ceasefire they accepted it so much Israel AS Hezbollah and which came into force this morning and effectively serves to stop hostilities, the war will have lasted a long time less than most analysts thought before it started a couple of months ago. This is if we consider the land invasion of Lebanon by the Israeli army as the start date of the conflict, obviously, even if in this case, as in the Gaza war, the actual start date It was October 7, 2023.
In any case, two months seemed too optimistic a deadline for even the most modest version of the conflict on the table: that Israel would simply push Hezbollah terrorists north of the Litani Riverthe line marked by the famous UN Resolution 1701 after the 2006 war, which Hezbollah terrorists did not respect and the UN itself did not want or know how to enforce.
After this agreement and the warnings it issued Benjamin NetanyahuIt seems that Israel is taking on the task of keeping terrorists from the Shiite organization at a greater distance from its border, which in principle should allow tens of thousands of Israeli citizens who remain displaced from the hours after 7 October, return to their homes in the north of the country.
It will be one of the first and most immediate fruits of the military operation It cost the lives of more than 50 Israeli soldiersbut which resulted in much greater attrition for Hezbollah, especially if we add it to the already legendary operation with which Israel killed several dozen people wounded thousands of terrorists detonating his pagers, which he had previously manipulated.
To this we must obviously add the bombings on a large part of the Lebanese territory in which Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructures were punished - in almost all cases camouflaged among the civilian population – and its dome was decimatedstarting from Eliminate Hassan Nasrallahleader of the organization for three decades and one of its strengths, especially regarding the relationship with Iran, essential for the gang to continue to dominate, as it dominates so far, much of Lebanon, a country that it has become a failed statesupervised concretely and remotely by the ayatollahs.
Will it be enough?
The length of the war is the first evidence that Israel’s intentions in confronting Hezbollah are very different, at least for now, from what it is trying to do – and largely achieving. with Hamas in Gaza: Tear down the entire organization to its foundations.
The truth is that this will not be a definitive war, as have not been all the others that Israel has fought in its history: the State born in 1948 would disappear if it lost just one, but winning them is limited to buying time weakening their enemies until the next conflict.
In the specific case of Hezbollah this It will depend above all on one factor: Iranwhich in the end is the enemy that really attacked Israel even if through two proxies. It will be the situation in the Persian country and the determination of the ayatollahs – and what Israel and the United States will have to thwart their plans – that will decide if and when a new war breaks out, which could be between Israel and Hezbollah, but could also turn into a conflict that would set the entire Middle East on fire.
How might the return of displaced Israeli citizens impact long-term stability in the region after the ceasefire?
Interview between Time.news Editor and Defense Analyst Dr. Rebecca Cohen
Time.news Editor: Welcome, Dr. Cohen. Thank you for joining us to discuss the recent developments in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. The ceasefire that went into effect this morning has seemingly cut the war short, with many analysts expecting a prolonged engagement. Why do you think the ceasefire was reached so quickly?
Dr. Rebecca Cohen: Thank you for having me. It’s an interesting situation. There are several factors at play. First, the military objectives might have been achieved more swiftly than anticipated. The Israeli forces have successfully pushed Hezbollah north of the Litani River, adhering to UN Resolution 1701, which has been a long-standing point of contention. This territorial control was likely an essential factor in both sides agreeing to a ceasefire.
Time.news Editor: That makes sense. Analysts noted that even a modest expectation of conflict duration seemed overly optimistic. What changed in your view?
Dr. Rebecca Cohen: It’s crucial to note that the actual start of the conflict aligns with the events of October 7, 2023. From that point, we observed a rapid escalation in military actions. Israel’s strategy seemed focused on a quick, decisive response to minimize ongoing threats from Hezbollah, which may have included targeted operations that inflicted significant losses on the group. This shift towards an intense, concentrated military effort likely pressured Hezbollah to reassess its position.
Time.news Editor: You mentioned the substantial losses sustained by Hezbollah. Could you elaborate on that?
Dr. Rebecca Cohen: Certainly. Reports indicate that Israel’s proactive measures have led to the deaths of several dozen high-ranking members of Hezbollah and inflicted injuries on thousands of their operatives. These operations, particularly those involving sophisticated tactics like manipulating Hezbollah’s own technology against them, have disrupted their command structure and operational capabilities. This attrition would understandably lead Hezbollah to reconsider its stance in negotiations.
Time.news Editor: This ceasefire could potentially allow for displaced Israeli citizens to return home. What do you think the implications of this are for long-term stability in the region?
Dr. Rebecca Cohen: The ability for displaced citizens to return home is a crucial step toward normalcy in the north of Israel, but it also poses risks. The lingering threats from Hezbollah cannot be ignored. If this ceasefire doesn’t lead to a more lasting solution or if Hezbollah rebuilds its capabilities during this pause, we could see a resurgence of conflict. Effective monitoring and enforcement of any agreements will be vital to prevent another escalation.
Time.news Editor: It seems like there’s a delicate balance to maintain moving forward. Given the complex humanitarian issues involved, what role do you foresee international actors playing in this situation?
Dr. Rebecca Cohen: International actors, particularly those involved in mediating ceasefires in the past, will certainly have a role. Organizations like the UN need to enforce Resolution 1701 more effectively and ensure that both parties adhere to agreed terms. Humanitarian aid and infrastructure rebuilding in northern Israel and southern Lebanon will be necessary to stabilize the region. However, this must be done in a way that addresses security concerns, or else any peace achieved could be tenuous at best.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Dr. Cohen. As always, your insights are invaluable. We hope for a sustainable peace and appreciate your expertise as these dynamics continue to unfold.
Dr. Rebecca Cohen: Thank you for having me. These are indeed critical times, and I share your hope for lasting peace and stability in the region.