Unusually Warm July Predicted for Southwest and Hotter Temperatures Near Canadian Border
As we head into July, hotter-than-average conditions are expected to dominate various regions across the United States, according to an updated outlook released by The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2 on Friday. The Gulf Coast to the Southwest, as well as the far northern tier, are forecasted to experience scorching temperatures, with the Southwest being the most likely to see above-average temperatures.
The upcoming month is expected to continue the trend seen in June, with the Southwest experiencing hotter than average conditions. A split flow jet stream pattern from June is predicted to persist, resulting in a heat dome of high pressure centered over parts of the Southwest. Consequently, temperatures in this region are forecasted to be much hotter than the typical July temperatures.
However, the heat won’t be limited to the Southwest alone. The upper Midwest, the Great Lakes, and northern New England are also expected to experience hotter than average temperatures near the Canadian border. These regions will likely face warmer conditions compared to what is typically observed in July.
While many regions can expect hotter temperatures, some parts of the West, central U.S., and mid-Atlantic may see slightly cooler-than-average conditions. Parts of California, particularly near the coast, could experience cooler temperatures in July. The forecast also suggests that the Central Plains and mid-Atlantic region, ranging from southern Pennsylvania to North Carolina, might encounter slightly cooler conditions compared to usual.
Interestingly, the cooler temperatures in the central Plains may be influenced by increased rainfall. Thunderstorms in the region, if not excessive or destructive, could potentially alleviate the severe to exceptional drought conditions.
However, there is some uncertainty surrounding this outlook. The emergence of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) blocking pattern could cause warmer-than-average conditions to shift farther north. Additionally, the exact locations of the most anomalous temperatures within the expected split pattern are still uncertain. Dr. Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2 and author of the outlook, emphasized the challenge in predicting specific details of temperature patterns.
While the outlook provides valuable insights, it is crucial to remember that the weather is always subject to change. The Weather Company’s primary mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment, and the significance of science in our lives. The story does not necessarily represent the position of their parent company, IBM.
In conclusion, July is expected to deliver an unusually warm month for the Southwest, with temperatures much higher than average. The Canadian border region will also experience hotter conditions. Conversely, parts of the West, central U.S., and mid-Atlantic may see cooler temperatures, while the central Plains could benefit from increased rainfall. However, uncertainty remains, with potential shifts in temperature patterns and the exact locations of anomalous temperatures.