2023-10-19 15:46:57
Anatoly Kotov. Still from video
The expert talks about why the Belarusian regime is angry with the Armenian diaspora.
The Belarusian authorities are approaching yet another ethnic minority. This time, the Armenians came into view. The day before it became known that the Ministry of Justice wants to liquidate their national association “Urartu”, which has operated in our country since 1999.
According to the latest census, in 2019 almost 9.4 thousand Armenians lived in Belarus. Filin asked political scientist Anatoly Kotov about why they fell out of favor with the Belarusian regime.
— Could the joint exercises of the Armenian military and the United States, as well as the ratification of the Rome Statute, which Russia called an “extremely hostile act”, become the reason for this?
“There used to be a lot of Armenians in Belarus, and now there are Belarusians in Armenia,” the interlocutor ironically describes the topic. — However, seriously speaking, the Belarusian regime now has several more reasons to be angry with Armenia than you listed.
Ratification of the Rome Statute worries them less now, because there is no arrest warrant yet against Lukashenko or any of his associates.
However, Armenia’s attempt to get out from under Russian influence and this somewhat imposed Belarusian mediation is obvious.
If you look at the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh, you can see how the Belarusian ruler has repeatedly allowed himself, in various formats, to speak from the position of “give them everything you regret.”
It is clear that he felt himself in his favorite role of “peacemaker,” but he did not take into account that he must have a little respect for those with whom he communicates.
Armenia is included in various integration structures on the territory of the former Soviet Union, including economic ones.
Its exit from Russian influence means a fairly serious dismantling of such structures as the CSTO and a blow to the EurAsEC.
Such passages seriously strain both the Russian authorities and Alexander Grigorievich. In response, they will, as expected, take revenge, take advantage of what they can get their hands on.
What else? Armenia is the least likely to help the Belarusian regime circumvent sanctions. Because, relatively speaking, there are a lot of fertilizers from Uzbekistan or metal from Uzbekistan on the European market, and Armenian partners do not appeal to such industrial volumes, even though this is a good way to make money.
Thus, Armenia demonstrates that, in general, it is possible to exist, and not in the worst way, not under the umbrella of Russia. This applies to business, the economy, and security.
You can live without Russian guarantees, which end up being very expensive at a critical moment. You have to pay with sovereignty, territory and the lives of your citizens, receiving nothing in return.
That is, these are such guarantees of security at the vassal level. When you depend more on who provided you with these guarantees than on any potential external dangers.
Armenia demonstrates all this and this is a very bad example for other participants in integration associations.
Accordingly, Russia absolutely does not like this, which is trying in every possible way to punish Armenia. There have already been statements that it is turning into “a second Ukraine”, and “Pashinyan into a new Zelensky” with all the ensuing consequences.
Naturally, the younger Belarusian brother is trying to keep up.
— It may not all end with the liquidation of the national unification?
— If the trend continues, then first of all, Armenian business will suffer – from restaurants, enterprises to retail outlets.
They will be dealt with according to the well-established scheme: first tribute, then “squeeze”, then suddenly problems with the migration regime will appear. The regime will not come up with anything new regarding the Armenians.
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