Lula da Silva and the rapprochement with China in the midst of the Russia-Ukraine war: A strategic bet?

2023-04-19 23:31:31

The president of Brazil interprets that history is traveling the path to post-westernization and a certain bi-globalization with Beijing as one of its axes.

Not yet recovered from the electoral results that gave him a limited victory; having to make balances on the military front; applying a gradual economic adjustment and with a center-right cabinet, Lula has made a strategic decision: make foreign policy their ideological space. To do this, repeat some formulas. The first is the double command.

In his other presidencies he appointed a “presidential adviser”, Marco Aurélio García, as his reference for Latin American affairs, while Itamaraty managed. Now Celso Amorin is the presidential adviser on foreign policy and the Foreign Ministry is once again the manager. In those years, Lulismo tried to accompany the regional agenda, where Chavismo exercised notorious leadership, assuming that it expressed the change of era.

Now, the president and his team repeat the format: Lula interprets that history is traveling the path to post-westernization, so he bets on join the strategic command led by China and Russiain that hierarchical order.

From this point of view, he applies a foreign policy where “the region is too small for Brazil”, he even ignores other governments that should be his interlocutors: Petro in Colombia; Boric in Chile and Kirchnerism in Argentina. The new redesign of foreign policy it has used the war in Ukraine as a point of disruption.

The new redesign of Lula’s foreign policy has used the war in Ukraine as a point of disruption. AFP photo

The “Lula” model

Offering a peace proposal to end the war, he appealed to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) space to accompany him based on an argument that is fully in tune with Russia: there would be shared responsibilitiesthen kyiv and Moscow should concede.

An ill-fated phrase by Lula, “Ukraine must cede Crimea”, reveals cynicism and calculation. Lula knows that Ukraine cannot accept that, having been invaded, it be assigned co-responsibility. Lula was only interested “score points” at the political table of anti-Westernism.

There are also other no lesser interests. At the BRICS Bank, Dilma Rousseff has just been appointed president. It is not only a matter of reparation for a historical figure of the PT that ended badly the days of her government. Brasília is aware that this Institution will have a central role in the granting of credits for infrastructure, particularly financed by China.

The dollar

Nor should it be ruled out that the expansion project of the Shanghai Group, a version of the Asian G20, where Beijing has a leading role, could include extra-regional partners. Lula is strongly committed to this economic agenda, China is Brazil’s great trading partner and in the name of that old relationship, today he accompanies one of the great bets of the post-Western project: end with a monetary system, whose axis is the dollar.

Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff in Shanghai. Photo Reuters

This point is central, because as the structuring role of the Washington vs. Beijing strategic rivalry deepens, geopolitics will have replaced geo-economics. In this world, peaceful coexistence will be difficult when signs are already visible: such as economic sanctions; an extraterritorial right; technological warfare; cyber warfare; satellite hacking; possible ruptures of submarine cables; renewed espionage, etc.

The world seems to be heading towards a certain bi-globalization that will be expressed in parallel worlds.

Lula, in campaign, could have chosen. It is not unreasonable to think that certain nationalist currents accompany him with an argument: Mercosur does not exist. Message to the new Argentine government: it must be updated.

PB

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