2023-10-24 07:01:00
After almost a decade of having been forcibly isolated from the Venezuelan electoral scene – due to a sanction from the regime that, on paper, disqualifies her until 2030 – the leader María Corina Machado shook the political board of the neighboring country and today it sounds as the anointed one of the opposition to rival Nicolás Maduro in the 2024 presidential elections. However, her victory is just the first step in a race of obstacles and challenges to compete with the president.
After months of delays and delays by the Venezuelan National Electoral Council, this Sunday the opposition held primary elections on its own to choose a single candidate. This Monday, with 64.88% of the votes counted – precisely due to the difficulties of having held elections without the logistical support of the authority –, the great winner was Machado, who obtained almost a million and a half votes: 1,473,105 .
In second place was former representative Carlos Prosperi, who barely got 70,819 votes. In fact, a fact that allows us to measure Machado’s overwhelming victory is that not even adding the votes of all his other contenders together do they reach a quarter of the former deputy’s votes (see infographic at the end).
The data known so far indicates that, out of every 10 votes, Machado obtained 9. Until now, 1,591,504 votes have been counted.
However, the real battle of the former representative – 56 years old and liberal – will be to face a disqualification issued by the regime, which would make it impossible for her to participate until 2030. The case dates back to 2015, when the Comptroller’s Office sanctioned her after splashing her in “a plot of corruption.”
Although that sanction, which was only for one year, expired in 2015, less than 4 months ago, on June 30, it was ratified and extended to 15 years. “This is not the end, but it is the beginning of the end,” insisted Machado, who trusts that national and international pressure will allow the regime to give him free rein.
The role of the United States
In this context, a key actor emerges: the United States, which less than a week ago, with the commitment that there will be free elections and with international oversight, temporarily relaxed some oil sanctions against Venezuela. Previously, from Barbados, the opposition to Maduro gathered around the Unitary Platform signed two agreements with the regime, one of them related to electoral guarantees.
The unknown that is obvious is whether Maduro and his people will give in to the sanctions against Machado and allow his participation to continue oxygenating the tension with the United States or, on the contrary, they will further limit his political rights, which could stop the Americans in their idea of lifting more sanctions.
According to Professor Manuel Alejandro Rayran, a specialist in diplomacy and conflict resolution, this is a gap that was not made clear in the Barbados agreements. For this reason, the United States – which does not want to continue fighting with Venezuela to access its oil and stop China – will have to maneuver diplomatically to weigh its interests and those of Venezuela.
“Although in energy and oil terms Venezuela has benefited from the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the possible escalation in the Middle East, the United States has not yet removed other sanctions from Maduro and maintains its reward for him. “That could give him an advantage in terms of a bilateral negotiation to push for free elections,” he explained in dialogue with this newspaper.
Despite this optimism and Machado’s victory, this Monday Diosdado Cabello – considered the number two of Chavismo – once again evoked the intransigence of the regime and warned that “there is not a single possibility, but not one, not even a half, that “A disqualified person can be authorized to participate in a presidential election, even if they are dressed and have their hair combed.” Cabello even accused the opposition of “inflating the numbers” and orchestrating “electoral fraud.”
In response, Machado has insisted that “I have never received a single notification” and has highlighted that, as indicated by the Constitution, only a “definitely firm” judicial ruling could stop his candidacy. In statements to the AFP news agency, constitutional lawyer Juan Rafalli urged to resolve the differences in the political arena, since the result is already known in the Venezuelan courts.
“The moment she goes to the Comptroller’s Office or the Supreme Court, she is validating those instances, when we know the answer,” declared Rafalli, who also ruled out that the former deputy has the chance to go to international entities since they would also be unknown to the regime.
The other challenge
In addition to facing the sanction of the regime, María Corina Machado is also called to unite the opposition and offer a renewed discourse that allows fractures to heal. An example of this is that the candidate Carlos Prosperi, the second in voting intention, denounced alleged irregularities in the consultations on Sunday, which would put the legitimacy of the elections in check.
In addition, Machado has the challenge of bringing together other sectors that did not participate in those primaries, among them, those led by Henrique Capriles or Leopoldo López. As if that were not enough, in order to offer renewal, he will have to convince other leaders who see in her that entrenched opposition that has not reached the Miraflores Palace.
“Machado must present a political program that convinces, that unifies the different forces. The Government does not listen, but the opposition does not convince,” Rayran added.
The presidential elections are expected to be held in the second half of 2024. After more than two decades of Chavismo in power, the elections would give a new lease of life to the neighboring country and allow the definitive return of democracy. In the process, it would also make it easier for the Venezuelan diaspora to cease and its people to return to their land.
Who is María Corina Machado?
Machado became famous in Venezuela in 2002, when he promoted a referendum to recall President Hugo Chávez. Since then he was consolidating his name until 2010, when he jumped to Parliament. Then, in 2012 she was chosen by the opposition to face Chávez in the presidential elections.
However, in 2014 (with Maduro on board) she would begin to be a victim of the regime’s excesses: she was removed from her role as a representative for serving as “alternate ambassador” of Panama during a meeting of the Organization of American States. From there, she denounced human rights violations. Although she continued in the political process, she was losing prominence and relevance, until this Sunday when she won the consultation and confirmed that she is still valid.
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