The Mexican currency returned to calm when it was located in the 20.11 units per dollar yesterday, after the shock that shot it up more than 70 cents upon the victory of Donald Trump, But analysts project a deterioration in the economic prospects for the country.
The scene in USA and the intensification of legal uncertainty in Mexico suggest that the GDP will be much lower in 2025, so Citibanamex lowered its projections from 0.8% to 0.2%.
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“However, the climate of high uncertainty will prevail, in particular on the effects of potential policies for Mexico, given the extremeness of its proposals and the wide margin there is on the degree to which it implements them.
“We estimate that next year trade barriers against China; Those referring to other countries are more uncertain, as is their magnitude. This would imply an increase in inflation, a higher value of the dollar and higher interest rates.”
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The analyst anticipated that the Federal Reserve It can still maintain its two cuts this year, one of 25 basis points in November and another in December.
To 2025, “Now we estimate that it would drop an additional 125 basis points” (no longer the 150 points that were expected).
“We estimate that Banxico will maintain its cycle of rate cuts, since we estimate that the upward effect on inflation resulting from the greater exchange rate depreciation will be compensated by lower growth, which implies lower inflation,” he said.
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Quasar Elizundia, economic strategist Pepperstone, underlined the vulnerability of the Mexican economy to trade uncertainty with USA after the Trump’s triumph.
“This decline shows the fragility of the peso in the face of the protectionist policies of Trump and the risk of possible renegotiations of the Treaty between Mexico, United States and Canada (T-MEC) in the following months.”
He explained that speculation about the imposition of new tariffs or an early review of the T-MEC They worry analysts, who fear that the manufacturing and automotive sectors, pillars of the Mexican economy, will be affected by increases in export costs.
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CRUDE PRESSURE
He highlighted that the strength that the dollar took in the last few hours put pressure on crude oil prices, directly affecting the Mexico’s oil revenues a vital source for the country’s fiscal balance.
“If these conditions persist, we could observe a rapid deterioration in the fiscal and trade balances, which could increase pressure on the peso and limit the prospects for growth economic”.
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Elizundia reviewed that markets remain cautious, with analysts warning that the current environment could trigger a period of high volatility for the mexican peso and the economy in general.
If this uncertainty continues, 2025 could become a difficult year for Mexico, with an economy struggling to grow in an increasingly challenging context.
Meanwhile, Felipe Menbdoza, market analyst ATFX, commented that the US dollar saw its biggest daily rise in more than two years, with bond yields rising substantially, as investors anticipate tax cuts and pro-market deregulation. financial sector.
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Gabriela Siller Pagaza, director of financial analysis at Banco Base, emphasized that this does not rule out that additional upward pressures may be observed for the exchange rate in the coming days, “which could react with the first comments from Donald Trump related to Mexico after winning the presidency.
In addition to tariffs, in campaign Trump promised to renegotiate T-MEC, deport illegals en masse and classify criminal organizations as terrorists, which raises the risk of a military intervention in Mexico”.
Related
Interview between Time.news Editor and Economic Strategist Quasar Elizundia
Editor: Welcome, Quasar Elizundia! Thank you for joining us today to discuss the current economic situation in Mexico following Donald Trump’s recent victory. The Mexican peso has seen some tumultuous movements. Could you explain the factors at play right now?
Quasar Elizundia: Thank you for having me! Yes, the recent fluctuations of the peso, which peaked at 20.11 units per dollar, have been very telling. Following Trump’s victory, we saw the peso drop over 70 cents, highlighting its vulnerability to external political influences and trade uncertainties. Analysts, including those at Citibanamex, have adjusted their GDP growth projections significantly downwards for 2025, indicating widespread concerns about Mexico’s economic outlook.
Editor: It sounds like the economic climate is filled with uncertainty. What do you believe are the key drivers behind this cautious sentiment among analysts and investors?
Quasar Elizundia: A major factor is the climate of high uncertainty that arises from the possible changes in U.S. trade policies. Trump’s administration has been associated with protectionism, which could mean increased trade barriers against countries like China that would inadvertently impact Mexico’s economy as well. If such policies are implemented, we could see not only a rise in inflation and a stronger dollar, but also possible spikes in interest rates as the U.S. Federal Reserve adjusts its monetary policy.
Editor: Speaking of monetary policy, how might Mexico’s central bank respond to these pressures, especially regarding interest rates?
Quasar Elizundia: Banxico, Mexico’s central bank, will likely maintain its cycle of interest rate cuts in the near term. The anticipated rise in inflation linked to currency depreciation will be countered by economic slowdown, which could ultimately lead to lower inflation overall. So, while the situation remains dynamic, we’re projecting a 125 basis points cut in interest rates by 2025, though this is a revision from earlier expectations.
Editor: That seems like a measured approach. What sectors of the Mexican economy do you think will be most affected by these developments?
Quasar Elizundia: The manufacturing and automotive sectors are the most vulnerable. Speculation around new tariffs or a review of the T-MEC, the trade agreement between Mexico, the U.S., and Canada, is worrying for these industries. If export costs rise due to protectionist measures, it could severely impact their competitiveness. Given that these sectors are pillars of the Mexican economy, any disruption could have far-reaching consequences.
Editor: What about the effect on oil revenues, which have traditionally been a significant part of Mexico’s fiscal balance?
Quasar Elizundia: Absolutely, the recent strength of the dollar has exerted pressure on crude oil prices, directly impacting Mexico’s vital oil revenues. If these economic conditions continue—especially the potential depreciation of the peso—we could see rapid deterioration in both fiscal and trade balances. This might ultimately limit growth prospects and further strain the economy.
Editor: It sounds like Mexico is at a crucial crossroads. As we look towards the future, what actions should policymakers take to navigate these challenging dynamics?
Quasar Elizundia: Policymakers must prioritize stability and transparency to regain investor confidence. Strengthening trade relations, particularly through the T-MEC, is crucial, as are efforts to bolster key sectors like manufacturing. Additionally, adapting to the economic environment with flexible monetary policies will help cushion potential shocks.
Editor: Thank you, Quasar, for your insights into the complex dynamics surrounding Mexico’s economy. Your expertise is invaluable as we continue to monitor these developments.
Quasar Elizundia: Thank you for having me! It’s essential to keep a close eye on these issues as they evolve.