In the photo instantly shared on the social network, everyone is holding hands, to best symbolize the past moment: the Mercosur countries and the Commission have given the green light to a free trade agreement. An crucial step has therefore been achieved. But the signing of the agreement will still have to be authorized by the Council of the European Union, which brings together the ministers of the 27. Another twist in this series of more than twenty cannot thus be ruled out. As the precedent of 2019 shows: a political agreement had been found, but had never been ratified.
To optimize the chances of seeing this project approved, the European Commission could decide to divide the text into two: on the one hand the political aspect, on the other the commercial one. Since trade policy is a prerogative of Brussels, this second part would not need to be ratified by national parliaments.But above all, such an approach would facilitate adoption by the Council of the European Union; an essential step. Actually, the text thus divided would not require consensus within this body which brings together the ministers of the various member states; a simple qualified majority would be enough.
“This is not the end of the story”
To achieve this qualified majority, two conditions are necesary: 55% of member states must vote in favor – that’s 15 out of 27. And they must represent at least 65% of the total population of the European Union (EU). Those who disagree can form a blocking minority. But here to the conditions have been clearly set: these countries must be at least four and represent at least 35% of the EU population.
France, which particularly fears the effects of this free trade agreement on agriculture, knows these rules perfectly. Emmanuel Macron, who doesn’t want to hear about signing the text” as it is,” he then attempts to form a blocking minority. “The Commission has completed its negotiating work with Mercosur, it is its duty, but the agreement has been neither signed nor ratified. so this is not the end of the story. There is no entry into force of the agreement with Mercosur”we underlined on Friday at the Elysée.
France strengthened with poland and Italy
France was joined by Italy and Poland. In total, the three Member States bring together 165 million inhabitants, out of the 449 in the Union; they represent more than 35% of the population. For Paris, membership of a fourth country would therefore remain. Which doesn’t seem impossible: Austria and the netherlands have expressed reservations.
But will these states still be critical once they have read in detail the text of the agreement which is to be published by the Commission at the beginning of the week? One thing is certain: France shoudl not back down. In the absence of a blocking minority, Emmanuel Macron will have to rely on the European Parliament, hoping that a majority of MEPs will reject the deal. Which is not won. “It will be interpreted by a few voices”, said the MEP (Renew), Pascal Canfin, at the microphone of France Inter on 15 November.
What are the potential impacts of the Mercosur-EU free trade agreement on agricultural sectors in Europe?
Interview with Dr. Maria Lopez: Expert Analysis on the Mercosur Free Trade Agreement and Its Implications for the EU
Time.news Editor: Today, we have dr.Maria Lopez, an expert in international trade policy, joining us to discuss the recent green light given to the Mercosur-EU free trade agreement and what it means for the member states involved. Thank you for being with us, Dr. Lopez.
Dr. Maria Lopez: Thank you for having me. It’s a pleasure to shed some light on this important progress.
Time.news Editor: To start off, Dr. Lopez, can you explain the significance of the Mercosur free trade agreement and the landmark decision that was recently made?
Dr. Maria Lopez: Certainly. the approval for the free trade agreement between Mercosur countries—Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay—and the european Union represents a pivotal moment in global trade relations. It symbolizes a commitment to increased economic cooperation, which could considerably enhance trade flows and investment opportunities between these regions. However, this agreement still needs to navigate the elaborate ratification process within the European Union.
Time.news Editor: Right, and what are the next critical steps in this process?
Dr.Maria Lopez: The signing of the agreement requires authorization from the Council of the European Union, comprising ministers from all 27 member states. There is also the possibility of dividing the agreement into two distinct texts: one focusing on the political aspects and the other on trade.This approach, while strategic, could potentially streamline the approval process because the commercial part might not require ratification from national parliaments, thus lowering the threshold for passing it through the Council.
Time.news Editor: That’s an interesting viewpoint. What hurdles do you anticipate may arise, especially with countries like France voicing strong concerns?
Dr. Maria Lopez: France has been vocal about its apprehensions regarding the impact on agriculture, and it’s not alone; Italy and poland share similar concerns. The requirement for a qualified majority—55% of member states in favor, representing at least 65% of the EU population—means that opposition from even a few countries can create a blocking minority. If these nations unite and maintain their stance, it could complicate the approval process significantly.
Time.news Editor: Given France’s current intentions to form a blocking minority, do you think that this sentiment will continue among the critical states once they review the detailed text of the agreement?
Dr. Maria Lopez: That remains to be seen. as the text is set to be published shortly, it will depend on how these states interpret the specific provisions within it. Reservations already expressed by countries like Austria and the Netherlands indicate that dissent is not isolated to just France. If these nations find specific clauses unpalatable, the likelihood of forming a strong opposition group remains high, which could stall the entire process.
Time.news Editor: If the agreement does not pass through the Council of the European Union, what alternatives might a country like France pursue?
dr.Maria Lopez: If France cannot form a blocking minority, it may have to appeal to the European Parliament, wherein the majority of Members of Parliament could potentially reject the deal. France’s long-term strategy will likely focus on gathering more support from like-minded nations to fortify its position.
Time.news Editor: what practical advice would you offer to businesses and industries that are gearing up for potential trade with Mercosur should this agreement come to fruition?
Dr.Maria Lopez: Businesses should closely monitor the development of the agreement and be adaptable to changing regulations and standards set forth by the EU. It would also be beneficial to engage in dialog with trade associations and policy experts to understand the implications fully. Moreover,building relationships with partners in Mercosur countries now could provide competitive advantages once trade barriers are reduced.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Dr. Lopez, for your insights on this incredibly complex yet crucial issue. It’s essential for our readers to stay informed as the situation evolves.
Dr. Maria Lopez: Thank you for having me.It’s critically important that we continue to discuss these topics as they affect both economies and communities across borders.