2024-11-23 04:30:00
If there were any need, the next partial legislative elections once again underline the fragility of the governing coalition. In these three elections, scheduled in Isère, the Ardennes and the Hauts-de-Seine, no candidate will be able to claim to represent, alone, the four parties of the “common base” – Renaissance, Les Républicains (LR), Horizons and Modem. Unable to come together in a united strategy, the troops who should support Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s action will appear divided. A new illustration of this temporary alliance between the former presidential majority and the right, struggling to exist beyond the agreement not to censor the government.
A situation symbolized by the prospect of discord, in Isère. Next to the face of Nathalie Béranger, LR candidate in the first constituency, is that of Michel Barnier. Enough to irritate Renaissance, which introduces Camille Galliard-Minier to this partial legislative session organized in mid-January 2025. “I find it very daring!is offended Emilie Chalas, the leader of the presidential camp troops in the department. For the Prime Minister to present himself with one of the two candidates when there is a government agreement does not respect an ally-to-ally relationship. »
Would the head of government have chosen a side between the two contenders starting from his “common basis” based on his partisan affinities? Matignon is careful not to comment on the topic. But for Yannick Neuder, MP and president of the Isère republicans, the prime minister’s support for the LR candidate at the expense of that of Renaissance raises no doubts. “Nathalie Béranger is the candidate of LR, Michel Barnier is LR and the republican right group [DR] supports Michel Barnier’s action in the Assembly »he says.
“Avoid a new Aurélie Trouvé”
In the first constituency of the Ardennes, where a partial legislative session will also be held from 1 to 8 December, the Republicans present Guillaume Maréchal against the former Renaissance MP, Lionel Vuibert. A solitary candidacy justified as follows by Pierre Cordier, LR deputy for the Ardennes and face of the party in the department: “It is not because we support Michel Barnier with Renaissance that the Republican right has drowned in an alliance with Macronie, MoDem and Horizons. »
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How could the ideological rifts within Barnier’s coalition impact voter perception in the upcoming elections?
Interview: The Future of French Governance Amidst Uncertainty
Time.news Editor (TNE): Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. We have the pleasure of speaking with political expert Dr. Claire Dupont. Dr. Dupont, France is gearing up for its upcoming partial legislative elections. Can you shed some light on the current dynamics of the governing coalition and what these elections could mean for Prime Minister Michel Barnier?
Dr. Claire Dupont (DCD): Good morning! It’s great to be here. The situation is indeed quite complex. As we know, the coalition backing Prime Minister Barnier—comprising Renaissance, Les Républicains (LR), Horizons, and Modem—is fragile. With the elections in Isère, the Ardennes, and Hauts-de-Seine, a unifying candidate from this coalition is conspicuously absent, which poses significant challenges.
TNE: How significant is the inability of these parties to come together under a single banner for Barnier’s administration?
DCD: It’s highly significant. This division reflects deeper ideological rifts between the parties. The coalition, initially formed to bypass the traditional political divides in France, is struggling to maintain cohesion. As they face these elections, it’s not just about winning seats; it’s about maintaining credibility and a unified front. Any visible discord might lead voters to question the stability of Barnier’s government.
TNE: You mentioned ideological rifts. Can you elaborate on what this looks like on the ground, particularly in the context of the upcoming elections?
DCD: Certainly. For instance, in Isère, we have LR candidate Nathalie Béranger and Renaissance’s Camille Galliard-Minier vying for the same constituency. This scenario highlights the internal conflict within the coalition, with each side reluctant to genuinely support the other. Such prominence of rival candidates may alienate constituents who prefer a more unified representation of their interests.
TNE: Given this backdrop, what strategies or approaches might Barnier and his coalition consider to mitigate these risks?
DCD: They might need to focus on issue-based campaigning that resonates with voters from all parties. Collaborative initiatives that underline common goals, as opposed to differing ideologies, can help. Additionally, addressing shared concerns—like economic stability and social issues—could demonstrate their capability to govern effectively together.
TNE: You mentioned ’collaborative initiatives.’ Given the diverse nature of the coalition, how realistically can they achieve this?
DCD: It’s a tough ask, but not impossible. For example, leaders could convene joint forums to discuss legislative priorities, allowing for a more cohesive strategy forward. However, this requires mutual trust, which has been tested recently. If they can genuinely focus on joint interests rather than individual party agendas, they stand a better chance of presenting a united front.
TNE: Lastly, if Barnier’s coalition fails to strengthen ahead of these elections, what alternatives might they have?
DCD: If the governing coalition continues to falter, it could lead to calls for either a return to more traditional party alignments or even a more central figure emerging to lead a new coalition. Alternatively, the potential for increased support for opposition parties could rise, leading to a significant reshaping of the French political landscape. It’s a situation that warrants close watching.
TNE: Thank you, Dr. Dupont, for your insights today. It seems that the upcoming elections hold much weight in shaping the future of governance in France.
DCD: Thank you! It will be fascinating to see how it unfolds, and I appreciate the opportunity to discuss these pivotal moments in French politics.