Concerns Over Russian military Buildup
military Expert Warns against Ceasefire in Ukraine
military Expert Warns against Ceasefire in Ukraine
January 19, 2025, 20:09
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A potential ceasefire in the ongoing Ukraine conflict could lead to a significant military buildup by Russia, warns Ukrainian military analyst Olexander Kowalenko. He predicts that within a year, Moscow could expand its military capabilities and pose a greater threat to Europe.
kowalenko, speaking to the Unian news agency, expressed concerns that a ceasefire would allow Russia to enhance its military strength unimpeded. He estimates that within twelve months, Russia could significantly increase its arsenal, including tanks, artillery, and missiles, as well as boost its infantry numbers to as many as 1.2 million troops. Furthermore, he noted that if cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang continues, up to 50,000 North Korean soldiers could be deployed to support Russian forces. “This buildup would far exceed the resources available to Russian troops at the onset of their offensive against Ukraine on February 24, 2022,” Kowalenko stated.
“Peace with an Unvanquished Enemy Leads to Greater Conflict”
Kowalenko warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin could exploit a ceasefire to advance into Europe, especially through the suwalki Corridor, a strategic area between Poland and Lithuania leading to Kaliningrad.”Few people discuss this, but this military strategy has been in place as 2022,” he remarked. The initial Russian plans also included a southern advance through the Ukrainian port city of Odessa towards Moldova.
According to Kowalenko, a forced ceasefire could bring Europe closer to a Third world War. “The foresight of Western leaders seems to be failing, and no one is considering what could happen after a year of ‘silence from the guns,'” he said. “Any peace with an unvanquished enemy only sets the stage for a larger conflict.”
Russian experts echo these sentiments, cautioning that Western military support and training for Ukrainian forces could strengthen Kyiv to the point of inflicting a strategic defeat on Moscow. They point to the West’s use of the Minsk agreements, established over a decade ago, as a means to bolster Ukraine’s military capabilities. Ukraine has consistently emphasized the necessity of decisively defeating Russia to prevent future aggression against other nations.
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