2022-11-07 15:16:17
In October, Russians purchased 45,228 new passenger cars and light commercial (LCV) vehicles, according to statistics from the Association of European Businesses (AEB). This is a 63% year-over-year decrease and a 3% decrease from September 2022. Monthly sales have been rising since May, when the all-time low on AEB’s record was recorded. Then in Russia only a little more than 24,000 cars were sold.
The October decline in sales was largely due to the negative dynamics of the main market player, AvtoVAZ. It only managed to sell 19,145 vehicles, down a quarter from October 2021 and down 7% from September this year. The market share of the Volga Automobile Plant in October amounted to 42.3%.
All major automakers represented on the Russian market showed negative dynamics in October. It is less pronounced in Chinese brands – Haval and Geely. The exception is sales of premium Infinity, which grew in October by 51% compared to October last year, to 139 units. This may be due to the decision of the brand to leave the Russian market, which became known in October, and in early November the manufacturer confirmed this officially.
The picture of the 10 months of 2022 is generally in line with the trend that continued in October. The market for new cars during this time sank by 61% to 502,474 cars. It is noteworthy that for 9 months, sales of new passenger cars and LCVs in Russia amounted to 506,661 vehicles. This statistical distortion is a consequence of the specifics of reporting data by the headquarters of Mercedes, BMW and Chery, which do not disclose sales data on a monthly basis and, accordingly, were not included in the October AEB statistics.
The situation in the car market is not conducive to the development of sales. In the spring, after the start of a special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine, most foreign automakers stopped deliveries and production of cars in Russia. Some of them, including Renault, Nissan and Mercedes, have already sold their factories to local structures. As a result, in the first nine months of 2022, 349,000 passenger cars were produced in Russia.
The shortage of cars on sale, which began last year in the wake of difficulties with the restoration of semiconductor production after the coronavirus, exacerbated the start of the SVO and the subsequent closure of car factories. As a result, prices for new cars since the beginning of the year increased by 19% to 2.29 million rubles. (Vedomosti wrote about this on October 27). This is more than all of last year.
The current situation could not but affect the main sellers of cars – car dealers. According to Avtostat, since the beginning of 2022, there have been 79 fewer car dealerships in Russia, with a total of 3,141 left. The largest reduction occurred among Renault dealers, which was one of the first to announce its withdrawal from the Russian market in the spring.
The baseline forecast of Avtostat assumes a decrease in sales of passenger cars this year by 59% to 618,000 cars, a pessimistic one – by 61% to 596,000 cars. In the optimistic scenario, the market will decrease by 58% to 641,000 vehicles.
The downward trend in monthly sales will continue until the end of the year, and this will contribute to the annual market result, independent automotive industry consultant Sergei Burgazliev believes. According to him, in October, the terms of deliveries of cars from China began to grow. The expert attributes this to the introduction of new coronavirus restrictions in a number of provinces of the PRC, the generally increased flow of goods to the east, and an increase in the turnaround time for containers on the railway network.
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