Tensions between Poland and Russia are unlikely to calm down anytime soon. A week after the closure of the Russian Consulate General in Poznan (West), moscow announced on Thursday 5 December that it had adopted a reciprocity measure, targeting the Polish Consulate General in St. Petersburg. An “awaited” and “predictable” decision in the words of Warsaw,which accuses its neighbor of “sabotage attempts”,espionage and cyber attacks. russia has also declared three diplomats “personae non gratae”.
Tensions between the two countries reached a new peak following the invasion of Ukraine. An ardent supporter of Kiev, a member of both the EU and NATO, Warsaw serves as the main transit country for Western weapons delivered to Ukraine. In April,Poland even said it was ready to welcome nuclear weapons on its territory if the transatlantic alliance decided to strengthen its eastern flank in the face of Russia’s deployment of new weapons in Kaliningrad (a Russian exclave located north of Poland,ed.) and neighboring Belarus.
Moscow accused of “sabotage”, Warsaw of “opposed policy”
At the end of last October, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski announced the closure of the Russian consulate in Poznan, reiterating accusations of “sabotage” and “hybrid war” against Moscow. “I have facts that Russia is behind the sabotage attempts in Poland and allied countries. Therefore, I have decided to withdraw the permission of the Consulate of the Russian Federation to operate in Poznan,” he announced. The decision should have come into force in the days following this proclamation, but the closure of this consulate only occurred at the end of November.
Moscow promptly promised a “painful response” to a measure deemed “hostile”. On Thursday the Kremlin announced the closure of the Polish consulate in St.Petersburg in response to the closure of the Russian consulate general in Poznan on November 30 (…), the Russian side withdraws its consent to the Consulate’s activity from January 10, 2025 General of Poland in St.Petersburg,” explained the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a press release.
Furthermore, three Polish diplomats have been declared “personae non gratae” and will also have to leave Russia.
Poland commented on the russian reaction. For the Tusk government, the announcement was greeted with “dignity and indifference” because the measure was “predictable”. Though, the justifications of Russian diplomacy do not pass. “Russia has no right to go further with the closure of the Russian consulate in Poznan, which was a response to acts of sabotage in Poland and some allied countries,” insisted Radoslaw Sikorski.
Acts,according to him,“resembling crimes which,thanks to happy coincidences,have not yet caused victims. But everyone knows what to expect from Russia,” he added. Polish diplomacy even says it is indeed ready to close all Russian consulates in poland if the acts of “terrorism” continue.
Tusk wants to unite the Baltics against Moscow
By “sabotage attempts” Warsaw means the arrest or conviction on its territory of numerous people, of various nationalities, accused of having carried out acts on behalf of the Russian secret services.
There is talk of beatings, fires or attempted arson, preparations for the derailment of a train carrying aid destined for Ukraine or even the observation of military installations and critical infrastructure in this NATO member country.
Poland, which under the leadership of Prime Minister Tusk aspires to become a heavyweight in Europe, has frequently enough been the first to react to the Russian advance on the Ukrainian front, mobilizing “all available forces and resources”, including its soldiers on the ground in addition to its fighter planes in the air.
Invited for the first time to the NB8 forum,which brings together the Baltic and Scandinavian countries,Donald Tusk last week called on neighboring countries to unite against Moscow,move closer to the United States and strengthen European defense.
The diplomatic tensions between Poland and Russia are reminiscent of similar diplomatic measures taken in the summer of 2023 against Helsinki, when the Russian Foreign Ministry declared nine employees of the Finnish embassy and its consulate in St. Petersburg personae non gratae,announcing their dismissal,starting since October.2023, of the agreement that allows the functioning of thes two diplomatic representations.
What are the main reasons behind the escalating tensions between Poland and Russia?
Time.news Interview: Tensions Between Poland and Russia
Editor: Good morning, and welcome to this special interview on Time.news. Today, I’m joined by Dr. Maria Kowalska, an expert in Eastern European geopolitics and a professor at the University of Warsaw. Thank you for being with us, Dr.Kowalska.
Dr. Kowalska: Good morning, and thank you for having me.
Editor: Let’s dive right in. Tensions between poland and Russia have escalated considerably in recent weeks. Just a week after the closure of the Russian Consulate in Poznan, Russia announced a reciprocal measure against the Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg.What does this say about the current state of relations between the two nations?
Dr. kowalska: This tit-for-tat action is indicative of escalating tensions, which have been heightened as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Poland’s strong support for Ukraine, both politically and militarily, has placed it at odds with Russia. The closure of the Russian consulate and the counter-measure taken by Moscow is part of a broader pattern of mutual hostility that we are witnessing right now.
Editor: The Polish government has accused Russia of various activities, including espionage and “sabotage.” Can you elaborate on thes claims and the basis on which Poland has made such accusations?
Dr. Kowalska: Yes, Polish officials, including Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, have pointed to numerous incidents over the past years that they believe constitute sabotage or hybrid warfare strategies employed by Russia.These allegations include cyberattacks targeting Polish infrastructure and espionage activities aimed at destabilizing the region. The Polish government feels justified in its actions after what they see as direct threats to national security.
Editor: In light of these tensions, poland has expressed a willingness to host nuclear weapons if needed. How important is this statement in the context of NATO’s collective defense strategy?
Dr. kowalska: Poland positioning itself as a potential host for nuclear weapons represents a significant shift in its defense posture. It underscores Poland’s desire for stronger deterrence measures against Russia. By aligning closely with NATO’s strategy of collective defense, Poland is sending a clear signal of its readiness to bolster its eastern flank. This could enhance security not just for Poland, but for the entire region, all while indicating a willingness to confront the threats posed by Russia.
Editor: Moscow’s response has included declaring three Polish diplomats as “personae non gratae.” How does such a diplomatic action impact future negotiations or relations between these countries?
Dr. Kowalska: Declaring diplomats as “personae non gratae” is a serious move that typically precedes further diplomatic isolation. It shows a complete breakdown in communication and willingness to engage in dialog. This can derail any hope for future negotiations because mutual trust has been severely eroded. Such actions often lead to a cycle of retaliatory measures, making it difficult for both sides to de-escalate the situation.
Editor: with Europe facing numerous challenges, including energy security and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where do you see Poland-Russia relations heading in the immediate future?
Dr. Kowalska: Unfortunately, I don’t foresee a rapid de-escalation. The war in Ukraine continues to be a pivotal factor that shapes Polish foreign policy. Tensions are likely to persist, as both nations double down on their positions. Poland will maintain its supportive stance toward Ukraine, while Russia will likely continue to view Poland as a conduit for Western influence. This could lead to further confrontations in diplomatic, economic, and even military spheres.
Editor: Thank you, Dr. Kowalska,for your insightful analysis on this pressing issue. It certainly raises questions about the future of European security and stability. We appreciate your time today.
Dr. Kowalska: Thank you for the opportunity.It’s important to keep these discussions open.