Four months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the leaders of NATO, meeting from June 28 to 30 in Madrid, succeeded in their demonstration. Support and solidarity with Ukraine, strengthening of the Alliance’s eastern front, enlargement to include Finland and Sweden despite Turkish obstruction, adoption of a new strategic concept: the 30 member countries of the Alliance have checked all the boxes. Emblematic of a new environment made up of competition and instability, the “strategic concept 2022” designates, unsurprisingly, Russia as “the most important and direct threat”.
“Systemic Challenges”
Newer, China is described as a source of “systemic challenges” for Euro-Atlantic security. «China displays ambitions and pursues coercive policies that run counter to our interests, our security and our values», spells out the document adopted in Madrid. Before driving the point home: “Russia and China are now establishing a strategic partnership and spearheading an authoritarian offensive against the rules-based international order. »
This unprecedented formulation prompted a scathing response from Beijing, which on Thursday denounced the efforts “completely useless” NATO for the ” leave “. “China is not at all the systemic challenge that NATO imagines. By comparison, NATO is the real systemic challenge to global peace and stability.” replied Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. During a trip to Ashkhabad, in Turkmenistan, Vladimir Putin, on Wednesday June 29, castigated the “imperial ambitions” leading NATO countries.
The Common Thread of Russian Aggression
A veritable red thread from the summit, the Russian aggression against Ukraine has concentrated people’s minds. NATO countries pledge to provide it with long-term military and financial aid, and the strengthening of the Alliance’s deterrence and defense posture will continue. At the heart of the maneuver, the United States is strengthening its presence in Europe with a garrison headquarters and a support battalion in Poland attached to the 5e army corps, the rotation of an additional brigade in Romania, “additional deployments” in the Baltic States, two squadrons of F-35 fighter jets in the United Kingdom and two new destroyers in Spain.
A rise in power which will see the American workforce in Europe exceed 100,000 men. The Secretary General of NATO has, moreover, set an ambitious roadmap: to be able to mobilize, under the command of the Alliance, a rapid reaction force of 300,000 men, against 40,000 men currently.
It remains for the Allied leaders to translate their commitments into action, without losing the support of their public opinion. «The allies have muted their different sensibilities on the war aims in Ukraine, but it will be more complicated to maintain this united front over timeunderlines Jean-Yves Haine, professor at Sciences Po. The economic crisis, with soaring energy prices and inflation, will pose a real challenge to governments in the allocation of budgetary resources. And the risk of escalation or accident in the conflict still exists. »
burden sharing
What relaunch the debate on burden sharing within the Alliance. Despite Joe Biden’s inflexible pro-NATO rhetoric, the United States, centered on its rivalry with China, has not given up on a transfer of resources to the Indo-Pacific. This strategic priority could come back in force if a Republican president more skeptical of the Alliance takes over the White House. For their part, the Europeans will have to increase their defense budgets and agree on the distribution of the bill. “European countries will have tough choices to make to meet their commitments, including the 2% of GDP target for military spending, set in 2014 at the Wales Summit,” says Gustav Gressel, researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Emmanuel Macron declared himself, for his part, satisfied to see that the complementarity between the European Union and NATO is no longer debated. For the Élysée, the accession of Finland and Sweden goes in this direction, because these two countries can be important “contributors” to European security. «Europe will have to carry a heavier burden in terms of collective defense and prepare to be the first responder in the event of a crisis on the periphery, underlines the former American diplomat and ex-assistant general secretary of NATO Alexander Vershbow. If they want more strategic autonomy, the Europeans will have to increase their participation in NATO’s defense capabilities to gain political weight. »