2023-10-24 19:41:19
On the brink of a new winter of war in Ukraine, there is no indication that a ceasefire is on the horizon. All diplomatic processes seem to be at a standstill. Russia is banking on the weariness of developed countries, while Ukraine’s friends are hoping for a military victory for kyiv which has still not come.
Officially, no direct negotiations between Moscow and Kiev have taken place since March 2022. At the time, several meetings between the foreign ministers, Sergei Lavrov and Dmytro Kouleba, took place in Minsk, then in Istanbul. But these attempts were cut short. There have since been lower-level contacts to organize prisoner exchanges.
But the Ukrainian president has repeatedly indicated that no peace negotiations seem possible to him as long as Vladimir Putin is in power in Russia. “We cannot talk to a liar” a redit Volodymyr Zelensky on CNN last September.
A ten-point Ukrainian peace plan
In November 2022, Ukraine unveiled its ten-point peace plan. It includes a total withdrawal of Russian troops, the payment of reparations, the return of Ukrainian children taken to Russia, the trial of war criminals, the establishment of security guarantees. Ukraine has given up on gaining entry into NATO but wants to benefit from consistent defense agreements.
President Zelensky is trying to sell this peace plan to his partners, as he did again on October 23 during a conversation with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman. He has the support of his Western partners, but not that of the countries of the South, who refuse to get involved.
On October 25 and 26, the Council of European Heads of State will once again devote part of its debates to Ukraine. He will reaffirm his support. The EU is preparing a twelfth package of sanctions against Russia which could target Russian diamond exports. She would also like the proceeds from frozen Russian assets to be redirected to support Ukraine. The Council should also express its readiness to participate in “future security commitments” necessary for “deter acts of aggression in the future”according to the draft conclusions of the summit which are circulating.
Westerners united behind Ukraine
Even if the handshake exchanged between Viktor Orban and Vladimir Putin on October 19 in China makes many Europeans cringe, they remain united on the essentials. The United States shows the same support, despite the fact that President Biden cannot get Congress to vote on a package of 60 billion dollars (56.6 billion euros) in aid to Ukraine.
On the Russian side, the Kremlin has never made its war aims explicit. But Russia, which agreed to receive a Chinese mediator, then African heads of state last spring, made it clear that any negotiation would first have to recognize the fait accompli and the territorial conquests already achieved. Moscow has annexed four Ukrainian regions in the south and east of the country, in addition to Crimea. Russia does not control these territories, but says it has the right to seize them. A position that is unacceptable today for kyiv.
Russia believes time is on its side
After twenty months of conflict, Russia believes that time is on its side, because its economy is resisting sanctions, even if the ruble has lost 54% of its value against the dollar over the past year. It retains the support of China and benefits from the neutrality of the large countries of the South. Vladimir Putin is taking advantage of Western engagement with Israel to make his argument: highlighting the“hypocrisy” of those who encourage the Jewish state to bomb Gaza and punish Russia when it does the same thing in Ukraine…
On a military level, the front line is changing little. The fighting remained at the same intensity, but the Ukrainian summer offensive did not bring a decisive victory. It only undermined the fortified defense line built by Russia in southern Ukraine. kyiv was able to break the naval blockade thanks to its drones. Ukraine once again manages to export its wheat through a freed shipping corridor. But 18% of its territory remains occupied. And it is unlikely that a change will occur in the coming months.
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