Stock futures inched higher on Wednesday as traders braced for Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the central bank’s Jackson Hole symposium. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were down 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 6 points, or 0.01%. The broader market had gained momentum the previous day, fueled by falling yields and lower oil prices, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.3% in regular trading and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.7%.
Nvidia’s second-quarter results, due after the market closed, are being closely watched as a barometer for the tech sector and broader market sentiment. Analysts project earnings of $2.09 per share on $92.28 billion in revenue, with the chipmaker’s market cap of more than $5 trillion making it the largest S&P 500 member. The company’s performance could influence investor confidence in artificial intelligence and semiconductor demand, particularly after its market value has fluctuated by an average of 7.4% in the past 12 quarters following earnings reports.
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Options traders are pricing in a more subdued reaction this time, with implied volatility expected to move $280 billion, or 5.4%, in Nvidia’s market value post-report. This contrasts with the “manic” swings seen in previous quarters, reflecting a cautious approach amid mixed economic signals. The chipmaker’s results come as the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting approaches, where Warsh’s remarks could signal policy direction for the remainder of 2026.
Piper Sandler’s head of central bank policy Kurt Lewis noted that Warsh is likely to focus on big-picture themes rather than diving into detailed economic outlooks during his Jackson Hole speech. Lewis wrote that the Fed chair may emphasize supply-side challenges and how the central bank’s Task Forces will address them, rather than providing immediate policy cues. This cautious approach aligns with broader market expectations, as traders await clarity on whether the Fed will hike, hold, or cut rates in September.
The Fed’s policy trajectory is further complicated by inflation data due later in the day. Economists forecast a 0.1% monthly increase in July’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, with a 3.6% annual rise. The report follows recent declines in Treasury yields, which fell broadly on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield dropping nearly 8 basis points. Lower yields have supported equities, but rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions remain risks.
U.S. Treasury yields hit multiyear highs last week, with the 30-year bond rate reaching levels not seen in nearly 20 years. However, yields fell broadly on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield losing almost 8 basis points on the day.
Morning Bid: Markets are waiting '9 to 5
Investors were rising early Friday ahead of a July jobs report that will help determine whether the Federal Reserve’s next move is to hike, hold, or even cut interest rates. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.1%. The three major indexes all fell on Thursday, with the Dow snapping a five-day winning streak as investors fretted that the U.S. and Iran wouldn’t be able to reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Those fears drove up oil prices and bond yields.
Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Stock Futures Rebound as Jobs
The three major indexes all fell on Thursday, with the Dow snapping a five-day winning streak as investors fretted that the U.S. and Iran wouldn’t be able to reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Those fears drove up oil prices and bond yields. Brent crude futures fell for a third straight day on Wednesday, sliding more than $2 to $86.22 per barrel after Iran said it had restarted talks with neighbour Oman to manage the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened economic pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump.
The rising optimism in the face of little evidence of immediate relief to supply challenges suggests investors are setting themselves, yet again, for disappointment. Commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz hit their lowest level in three months, underscoring the supply constraints facing the world due to the nearly six-month long conflict. Then there’s Wednesday’s main event, second-quarter results from Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab, the poster child of the AI frenzy. Over the previous 12 quarters, its market value has swung by an average 7.4% following its earnings report.
This time, options traders are pricing in a less manic reaction — only a $280 billion or 5.4% move in Nvidia’s market value after it reports. The U.S. dollar was steady ahead of U.S. PCE inflation data later in the day and Jackson Hole over the weekend, as traders await cues for the monetary policy outlook. Markets have been grappling with the U.S. Treasury department’s move to buy back bonds to help cap a surge in long-end yields.
The move to calm the bond market has piled pressure on the dollar, catapulting spot gold and bitcoin near three-month highs as the debasement trade
persists. And finally, we end with the sad news that country music legend Dolly Parton died on Tuesday in Nashville. She was 80.
