new voting rights
Olaf Scholz could be kicked out of the Bundestag
23.11.2024Reading time: 2 min.
The new electoral law has weakened the protection of top politicians via state lists. Under certain circumstances,Olaf Scholz would have to worry about his mandate.
The new voting law could cost some top politicians their return to the Bundestag in the February election. Because then it is no longer enough to just win one constituency and thus enter parliament directly. of all people, two top SPD politicians are apparently threatened.
According to an analysis by the opinion research institute Insa on behalf of “Bild”, things could be tight for current Chancellor Olaf Scholz and SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich.
In order to ensure that crucial party politicians sit in the Bundestag even if they do not win a direct mandate,they are usually placed at the top of the state lists.So far, a mandate in the Bundestag was guaranteed if the party won enough second votes.But that is now changing for the first time since the electoral law reform.
The number of constituencies a party wins directly is also taken into account. The so-called overhang mandates were abolished. After the reform, there will only be as many direct candidates in the Bundestag as the party is entitled to based on the result of the second votes. And: If a party in a federal state has more constituency winners than corresponds to its second vote result, fewer of them should be taken into account when allocating mandates, in the order of their results in the constituency votes.
For Scholz and Mützenich, this could mean: Even if they win their constituency, they could come away empty-handed if there are many other direct mandates with a high share of votes and at the same time few second votes. The glimmer of hope for Scholz: In the 2021 election, the SPD won all direct mandates in Brandenburg, but also had the highest share of second votes.
According to current surveys,the SPD has around 15 percent nationwide. in the last federal election, Scholz received 34 percent in his constituency in Potsdam (Brandenburg state list), and Mützenich in Cologne (North Rhine-Westphalia state list) received 29.9 percent. But it is indeed questionable whether they will achieve these values again. Incidentally, Olaf Scholz could still become Chancellor if the SPD comes out of the polls and wins the election: The Chancellor does not have to have a mandate in the Bundestag. But if Scholz doesn’t enter the Bundestag, the SPD would have to look for another opposition leader – or, if Mützenich doesn’t make it, a new parliamentary group leader.
It’s not just SPD politicians who are at risk. according to the Insa analysis, there are also candidates from the CDU and the Greens who won their constituency with just under or over 30 percent. This also includes top candidate Robert Habeck, who will have to hope for the state list in Schleswig-Holstein in the event of defeat.
What are the key electoral reforms implemented in Germany adn how might they impact the 2025 elections?
Interview between Time.news Editor and Electoral Law Expert
Editor: Welcome to Time.news! Today, we’re diving into the implications of the recent electoral reforms in Germany, particularly focusing on how they may affect current chancellor Olaf Scholz’s position in the bundestag. Joining us is Dr. Anna Becker,an expert in electoral systems and political behavior. anna, thank you for being here!
Dr. Becker: Thank you for having me! It’s a pleasure to discuss this vital topic.
Editor: so, as we’ve seen from the latest reports, there’s speculation that Chancellor Scholz coudl be kicked out of the Bundestag due to new voting rights legislation. Can you explain the main changes in the electoral law that are causing this concern?
Dr. Becker: Certainly! The recent reforms aim to make the electoral process more equitable and inclusive, but they also come with some significant shifts. One notable change is the adjustment in the thresholds for party depiction in the Bundestag, which may affect smaller parties and incumbents like Scholz. This could lead to a realignment in voter support, especially in light of how the new rules favor parties that have a broader appeal.
Editor: That sounds like a significant shift. How do you think these changes will impact the political landscape in Germany overall? Could we see a rise in new parties?
Dr. Becker: Yes, that’s a very real possibility.The new electoral law has been designed to empower underrepresented voices, which may benefit smaller and newer parties that previously struggled to gain traction. This could lead to a more fragmented political landscape, as voters are encouraged to explore option options rather than just voting for established parties, like Scholz’s SPD.
Editor: Speaking of the SPD,what does this mean for Scholz’s chances of reelection within a perhaps reshaped Bundestag?
Dr. Becker: Scholz’s re-election hinges on two factors: his party’s ability to adapt to these changes and how effectively they can communicate their policies to the electorate. With the political dynamics shifting, the SPD will need to engage with voters more creatively and perhaps even rethink their campaign strategies to resonate in this new surroundings. The risk of not maintaining visibility and connection with constituents could indeed jeopardize Scholz’s seat.
Editor: Interesting. There’s also the social aspect to consider—how are voters responding to these reforms so far? Are they aware of the implications for their representatives?
Dr. Becker: From what we’ve seen in surveys, there’s still a lack of awareness among the general public regarding the nuances of the new electoral law.Though,there is a palpable sense of optimism among voters looking for change. many are eager for an possibility for their voices to be heard, which could lead to a more engaged electorate. As they become more informed about these reforms, we might see a significant shift in voting behavior.
Editor: We’ve discussed a lot about the potential risks and changes facing Scholz and the SPD, but what could be some positive outcomes of the new electoral law?
Dr. Becker: A key positive outcome could be increased political engagement and representation. The reforms are aimed at reducing the barriers for participation in the political process, which could lead to a more democratic and responsive government. If parties are successful in tapping into the concerns of a diverse electorate, it could ultimately lead to more effective governance.
Editor: Captivating insights! Before we close, is there anything else you think our readers should keep an eye on regarding this situation?
Dr. Becker: Absolutely! Readers should pay attention to how parties are strategizing in light of these reforms, especially as the elections draw near. Monitoring voter sentiment and shifts in party support will be critical, as these dynamics will shape the future of german politics. It’s an unfolding story that promises to bring surprises!
Editor: Thank you so much, Dr. Becker, for providing such valuable analysis on this pressing topic. We appreciate your time!
Dr. Becker: Thank you! It was a pleasure to discuss these pivotal changes in the German electoral landscape.