He was long considered the most promising candidate for Kretschmann’s legacy – now it is clear: Cem Özdemir wants to become the Green Party’s top candidate in the 2026 state elections. The starting position is not easy.
Federal Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir wants to run as the Green Party’s top candidate in Baden-Württemberg in the state elections in spring 2026. “I would like to serve you, dear fellow citizens, as Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg and give everything for this country,” writes Özdemir in a letter to the citizens. According to a spokeswoman, Özdemir wants to continue in his office as Federal Minister of Agriculture.
The 58-year-old has long been considered the most promising candidate for the top candidacy. Incumbent Winfried Kretschmann (Greens) is no longer running in the election. Only Özdemir is as well-known as Kretschmann, the party has consistently said in recent months. In addition, the Federal Agriculture Minister can draw on a long history of political experience and, like Kretschmann, is counted as part of the pragmatic “Realo” wing of his party.
Özdemir’s most promising challenger will probably be the new CDU state chairman and parliamentary group leader Manuel Hagel. The 36-year-old is the CDU’s new strong man in the state and replaced State Interior Minister Thomas Strobl as head of the southwest CDU at the end of 2023.
However, the omens for Özdemir’s candidacy could be better: the state elections in spring 2026, for which an exact election date has not yet been set, are likely to be a major challenge for the Greens. In opinion polls, the CDU was recently well ahead of the Greens in the southwest with a lead of more than ten percentage points – the eco-party also suffered heavy losses in all of Baden-Württemberg’s urban and rural districts in the European elections.
In the state elections in March 2021, the Greens achieved 32.6 percent, the CDU got 24.1 percent, the SPD got 11 percent, the FDP got 10.5 percent and the AfD got 9.7 percent.
And people in the southwest also tend to believe that the next Prime Minister could be called Manuel Hagel. According to a survey by the Kantar research institute, 46 percent of respondents believe it is likely that the CDU leader will win the next state election. Only 23 percent of those surveyed believe that Özdemir can do this, as shown in the ”Baden Württemberg Report” for October on behalf of Privat.Radio.
However, the Greens like to refer to the year 2015 in view of the current survey situation. At that time, the polls showed the CDU with more than 15 percentage points ahead of the ruling Greens - but the latter still won the state elections in 2016 and Kretschmann remained Prime Minister.
Özdemir comes from Bad Urach at the foot of the Swabian Alb and is the son of Turkish guest workers. After completing secondary school and training as an educator, Özdemir studied social pedagogy. He has been a member of the Greens since 1981 and was the party’s federal chairman from 2008 to 2018. In 1994 he was elected to the Bundestag – as the first member of parliament with Turkish roots.
Anger over bonus miles collected for work but used privately and a personal loan were followed by a federal political break in the USA and Brussels from 2002 onwards. From 2004 to 2008, Özdemir was a member of the EU Parliament. He has been sitting in the Bundestag again since 2013, and in 2021 he won the direct mandate in the Stuttgart I constituency with 40 percent of the first votes. In December 2021, he became Federal Minister of Agriculture in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s (SPD) traffic light cabinet.
The Green Party has not always fared well with farmers. Özdemir distanced himself early on from the federal government’s decision to abolish tax breaks for agricultural diesel. Nevertheless, he was fully exposed to the anger of the farmers.
Interview between Time.news Editor and Political Expert on Cem Özdemir’s Candidacy for Baden-Württemberg State Elections
Time.news Editor: Good day! Today, we have a special guest, renowned political analyst Dr. Anna Schmidt, to discuss the recent announcement by Federal Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir regarding his candidacy as the Green Party’s top candidate for the upcoming 2026 state elections in Baden-Württemberg. Dr. Schmidt, thank you for joining us!
Dr. Anna Schmidt: Thank you for having me. It’s a pleasure to be here.
Editor: Let’s dive right in. Cem Özdemir has stated his intention to run for the top position in the Green Party. What does this say about the current political landscape in Baden-Württemberg, especially with the upcoming elections?
Dr. Schmidt: Özdemir’s decision signals a significant strategic move for the Greens, especially since the incumbent, Winfried Kretschmann, is not seeking reelection. He is one of the most recognized political figures in the country, and entering the race as a well-known candidate gives the Greens a fighting chance in an increasingly competitive environment.
Editor: You mentioned Kretschmann’s departure. How crucial was his leadership to the Green Party’s success in the past?
Dr. Schmidt: Kretschmann’s leadership has been pivotal for the Greens; he not only galvanized support within the party, but he also positioned the Greens as a serious political force in Baden-Württemberg. His pragmatic approach resonated with voters, particularly in rural areas. Özdemir, being aligned with the pragmatic “Realo” wing, might hope to replicate Kretschmann’s success, but he faces significant challenges.
Editor: Speaking of challenges, recent polls show that the CDU is leading by over ten percentage points. What could this mean for Özdemir’s candidacy?
Dr. Schmidt: Those numbers are indeed concerning for Özdemir and the Greens. His main opponent, the CDU’s new state chairman Manuel Hagel, is gaining momentum, and the shift in public opinion could translate into a tough uphill battle. The Greens need to regain trust and support, particularly in urban and rural districts where they’ve faced losses in recent elections.
Editor: It seems the perception of the electorate is also leaning towards Hagel as a likely candidate for Prime Minister. How critical is public perception in this context?
Dr. Schmidt: Extremely critical. According to a recent survey, 46 percent believe Hagel could win, while only 23 percent view Özdemir as a viable candidate. Public sentiment can sway voter behavior, especially in the months leading up to the election. Özdemir will need to craft a strong campaign that resonates not just with traditional Green voters, but also with undecided voters looking for practical solutions.
Editor: Historical context can often provide valuable insights. You mentioned the 2015 elections earlier. Can you elaborate on that?
Dr. Schmidt: Absolutely. In 2015, despite polls showing a significant lead for the CDU, the Greens managed an impressive comeback through strategic campaigning and addressing the pressing issues of the time. This historical precedent may offer a glimmer of hope for Özdemir, but he must be prepared to counteract the current perceptions and focus on contemporary issues that matter to voters today.
Editor: So, if you were to advise Özdemir going forward, what key strategies should he employ?
Dr. Schmidt: First and foremost, he needs to promote a clear and relatable agenda that addresses the key concerns of voters, whether it’s climate change, economic policies, or social issues. Secondly, building a strong grassroots movement and connecting with voters at a personal level can also bridge gaps in public perception. Lastly, he should also be prepared to engage constructively with the media to bolster his visibility and narrate his vision for the state.
Editor: That’s insightful, Dr. Schmidt. As we look ahead to 2026, it’ll certainly be an interesting race to follow. Thank you for sharing your expertise on this topic!
Dr. Schmidt: Thank you! I look forward to seeing how the political landscape unfolds in Baden-Württemberg.