Coalition at the end
Parties see the early date for the federal election as relaxed
Updated on November 7, 2024Reading time: 3 min.
The exact date for the early federal election has not yet been set. But one thing is clear: parties and election officials have to step on the gas. However, they appear calm.
The traffic light coalition collapsed after around three years. The federal election, which was actually scheduled for September 28th next year, is to be brought forward. The way to get there is precisely laid down in the Basic Law. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has already announced that he will ask the Bundestag for a vote of confidence on January 15th.
According to Article 68, the Federal Chancellor can request that the Bundestag express confidence in him. He can - but does not have to – link this to a specific legislative project. If the Chancellor does not receive a majority, he can ask the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag. The last time Gerhard Schröder (SPD) did this was in 2005.
However, this approach is controversial because it is not intended – as intended in the Basic Law – to get the vote of confidence expressed, but on the contrary, to miss the majority necessary for this. This is why it is also referred to as a “false question of trust”. Scholz already
If the Chancellor asks the vote of confidence in Parliament and does not get a majority, the next step will be to ask the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag. According to Article 68, he has a maximum of 21 days to do this. However, he is not obliged to do this according to the Basic Law. If he does, then according to Article 39 a new Bundestag must be elected within 60 days.
In 2005, the timing was like this: On July 1st, Schröder lost the vote of confidence in the Bundestag as desired. On July 13th he suggested to Federal President Horst Köhler that the Bundestag be dissolved, which he did on July 21st. At the same time, Köhler scheduled a new election for September 18th. It took 79 days from the vote of confidence to the new election.
One thing is clear: with a new election scheduled at such short notice, everyone involved has to hurry. On the one hand, this applies to the electoral organization. The Federal Election Committee must decide whether parties should be admitted to the election. The voter rolls must be updated, those eligible to vote must be notified, postal voting documents must be sent out and electoral committees must be formed.
A lot of work - but from the point of view of Federal Returning Officer Ruth Brand, a short-term appointment would not be a problem. A spokesman for the authority told the German Press Agency that they don’t see any particular challenge, even if that were to happen in the short term. He pointed out that the same requirements would apply as for other federal elections. The deadlines for this are all regulated by law.
However, the chairmen of the CDU and CSU, Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, have been emphasizing for a long time that their parties are prepared for an early date and can start the election campaign immediately. “The materials are completely ready,” says Söder. You can immediately start putting up posters and sending spots. With its new basic program, the CDU has already laid the foundation for an election program.
In the other countries, the state associations of the parties are also correcting their schedules and bringing forward dates. However, they agree that it can be done, as a dpa survey showed. “We’ll manage that,” says Brandenburg’s BSW chairman Robert Crumbach, for example. The parties are probably most relaxed in Hamburg, because new citizenship will be elected there on March 2nd anyway. The politics of the Hanseatic city are already in election campaign mode.
The Sahra Wagenknecht alliance would probably have liked a little more time to prepare for the election. In Bavaria, Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania there are not even regional associations. But its founding was planned for the coming weeks anyway, said a spokeswoman for the dpa. The party, which was only founded in January 2024, is prepared programmatically. “Because we have already started developing the federal election program.”
How have historical events influenced the current approach to early elections in Germany?
Time.news Interview: Navigating the Political Landscape of Early Federal Elections
Interviewer: Anna Feldman, Editor of Time.news
Expert: Dr. Peter Schmidt, Political Scientist and Electoral Process Specialist
Anna Feldman: Welcome, Dr. Schmidt. Thank you for joining us today to discuss the recent developments surrounding the anticipated early federal elections in Germany.
Dr. Peter Schmidt: Thank you for having me, Anna. It’s a critical time for German politics, and I’m glad to shed some light on the situation.
Anna Feldman: The coalition government, often referred to as the “traffic light coalition,” has collapsed. With the federal election now being moved up from the previously scheduled date, how does this impact not only the political parties involved but also the electorate?
Dr. Peter Schmidt: It certainly shakes up the political landscape. The collapse of the coalition after just three years indicates significant instability, and it puts pressure on the parties to mobilize quickly. For voters, this can be confusing; they’re likely to question the implications of such rapid changes, especially if they feel unprepared for another election.
Anna Feldman: Indeed. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is seeking a vote of confidence. Can you explain how this process works and why it’s considered controversial?
Dr. Peter Schmidt: Absolutely. Under Article 68 of the Basic Law, the Chancellor can ask the Bundestag to express confidence. If he loses that vote, he can then request the federal president to dissolve the Bundestag. The controversy arises because it’s generally intended to strengthen the Chancellor’s position; however, if used strategically to provoke an early election instead of genuinely seeking confidence, critics have termed it a “false question of trust.” It raises ethical concerns about its intended use.
Anna Feldman: What parallels can we draw from past events, like Gerhard Schröder’s maneuver in 2005? How did that situation inform the current climate?
Dr. Peter Schmidt: Schröder’s case was quite illuminating. He intentionally structured his approach to ensure he lost the confidence vote, which led to elections being called swiftly after. The current situation is reminiscent of that; however, each political context is unique. The urgency is palpable now, especially given how swiftly electoral organizations must adapt for a significant event like a federal election.
Anna Feldman: Speaking of urgency, how prepared are the electoral officials and parties for this rapid timeline?
Dr. Peter Schmidt: Surprisingly, the Federal Returning Officer, Ruth Brand, has communicated that they are well-equipped to handle such a short notice if the President agrees to dissolve the Bundestag. They have legal frameworks in place that outline all necessary steps, and they’ve indicated confidence in executing them effectively.
Anna Feldman: And what about the parties themselves? Are they collectively ready to launch their campaigns?
Dr. Peter Schmidt: The leaders of the CDU and CSU, for instance, have asserted their readiness for an early election, which shows that they’ve been preparing for quite some time, anticipating this possibility. That said, the rapidity of the process may still challenge even the most prepared parties, particularly lesser-known ones that might struggle to gain visibility quickly.
Anna Feldman: It sounds like we’re set for an interesting political showdown. As we wrap up, what do you see as the potential implications for the German political landscape following these elections?
Dr. Peter Schmidt: If conducted successfully, we could see a reconfiguration of party alliances and a shift in public trust towards parties that seem capable of managing such crises. Conversely, if the elections reveal continued instability or voter dissatisfaction, we might witness a deeper fragmented landscape that challenges governance moving forward.
Anna Feldman: Thank you, Dr. Schmidt, for your insights. In these times of political turbulence, your analysis helps clarify what’s at stake as we look ahead to the next federal election.
Dr. Peter Schmidt: Thank you, Anna. It’s crucial for voters to stay informed and engaged during these pivotal moments.